Charlotte FC — Houston Dynamo: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.5% |
| 12 | 73.2% | |
| X2 | 56.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.9% / 36.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.8% / 16.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.7% / 39.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.4% / 61.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.8% / 79.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.8% / 90.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Atlanta Utd 2:0
- 23.08.2026 home DC United 3:1
- 20.08.2026 away Toronto FC 3:3
- 16.08.2026 home Columbus Crew 3:1
- 02.08.2026 away Chicago Fire 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home San Jose Earthquakes 0:0
- 23.08.2026 away St. Louis City 1:2
- 20.08.2026 away Vancouver Whitecaps 1:0
- 16.08.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 1:0
- 08.08.2026 away New England Revolution 2:0
This season: Charlotte FC at home vs Houston Dynamo away
| Metric | Charlotte FC · at home | Houston Dynamo · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 7–3–2 | 5–1–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.17 | 1.55 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.08 | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 45% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 45% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 30.06.2024 Houston Dynamo 1:0 Charlotte FC
- 04.07.2022 Houston Dynamo 1:2 Charlotte FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Charlotte FC have a slight edge over Houston Dynamo in this MLS meeting, although the moderate confidence indicates a relatively balanced contest rather than a clear mismatch. The available assessment points toward a competitive game in which the home side may have a small advantage, while Houston Dynamo remain capable of challenging for a positive result. A cautious home-or-draw outlook fits the balance between the teams.
The match is expected to have an open scoring profile, with both Charlotte FC and Houston Dynamo likely to find the net. That suggests the result could remain uncertain for long periods, particularly if neither side establishes control early. Charlotte FC’s home advantage gives them the marginally stronger position, but the overall picture supports a close encounter with opportunities at both ends rather than a one-sided performance.
What matters before kick-off
Team news and injuries
According to the official MLS player availability report, Charlotte FC will be without Nimfasha Berchimas, Aron John, and Harry Toffolo due to injuries. Houston Dynamo FC will miss Lyle Foster and Jimmy Maurer, while Marcelo Saracchi is listed as questionable.
Recent form and milestones
Charlotte FC enter the match on a four-game unbeaten run (two wins, two draws) after a 2-0 victory against Atlanta United FC in their previous fixture. Houston Dynamo FC carry 39 points from 22 matches into the contest, marking the highest point total through 22 games in franchise history.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.