Charlotte FC — Houston Dynamo: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.5% |
| 12 | 73.2% | |
| X2 | 56.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.9% / 36.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.8% / 16.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.7% / 39.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.4% / 61.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.8% / 79.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.8% / 90.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Charlotte FC have a slight edge over Houston Dynamo in this MLS meeting, although the moderate confidence indicates a relatively balanced contest rather than a clear mismatch. The available assessment points toward a competitive game in which the home side may have a small advantage, while Houston Dynamo remain capable of challenging for a positive result. A cautious home-or-draw outlook fits the balance between the teams.
The match is expected to have an open scoring profile, with both Charlotte FC and Houston Dynamo likely to find the net. That suggests the result could remain uncertain for long periods, particularly if neither side establishes control early. Charlotte FC’s home advantage gives them the marginally stronger position, but the overall picture supports a close encounter with opportunities at both ends rather than a one-sided performance.
What matters before kick-off
Team news and injuries
According to the official MLS player availability report, Charlotte FC will be without Nimfasha Berchimas, Aron John, and Harry Toffolo due to injuries. Houston Dynamo FC will miss Lyle Foster and Jimmy Maurer, while Marcelo Saracchi is listed as questionable.
Recent form and milestones
Charlotte FC enter the match on a four-game unbeaten run (two wins, two draws) after a 2-0 victory against Atlanta United FC in their previous fixture. Houston Dynamo FC carry 39 points from 22 matches into the contest, marking the highest point total through 22 games in franchise history.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.