Toronto FC — Chicago Fire: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 59.3% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 65.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.9% / 32.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.5% / 13.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.1% / 33.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.3% / 55.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.7% / 74.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.0% / 87.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Toronto FC and Chicago Fire look evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, pointing instead to a balanced contest in which the result may depend on which team manages key moments more effectively. With only moderate confidence in the outlook, the match appears difficult to separate before kickoff.
The main signal is for an open, high-scoring game, with both teams likely to score. That suggests Toronto FC and Chicago Fire may be willing or able to create opportunities at both ends rather than keeping the match tightly controlled. A draw is one plausible path, while a narrow win for either side also fits the balanced profile. The central expectation is therefore a competitive encounter with goals from both teams, rather than a strongly one-sided performance.
What matters before kick-off
Chicago Fire conclude four-game road swing
The match against Toronto FC marks the final fixture of a four-game MLS away trip for Chicago Fire FC.
Unbeaten runs for both sides
Both Toronto FC and Chicago Fire FC enter the matchup riding five-match unbeaten streaks.
Head-to-head dominance for Chicago
Chicago Fire FC are undefeated in their last eight matches against Toronto FC, including a 2-1 victory in their previous meeting this season at Soldier Field.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.