Toronto FC — Chicago Fire: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 59.3% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 65.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.9% / 32.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.5% / 13.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.1% / 33.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.3% / 55.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.7% / 74.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.0% / 87.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home New York City 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away Inter Miami 2:1
- 20.08.2026 home Charlotte 3:3
- 16.08.2026 home New England Revolution 2:1
- 01.08.2026 away New York City 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Seattle Sounders 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away New York Red Bulls 1:1
- 20.08.2026 away Orlando City 2:1
- 16.08.2026 home Portland Timbers 2:1
- 02.08.2026 home Charlotte 2:1
This season: Toronto FC at home vs Chicago Fire away
| Metric | Toronto FC · at home | Chicago Fire · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 3–7–2 | 4–4–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.92 | 1.73 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.92 | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 73% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 82% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 24.05.2026 Chicago Fire 2:1 Toronto FC
- 05.10.2025 Chicago Fire 2:2 Toronto FC
- 15.03.2025 Toronto FC 1:2 Chicago Fire
- 29.09.2024 Chicago Fire 1:1 Toronto FC
- 16.06.2024 Toronto FC 1:4 Chicago Fire
- 16.07.2023 Chicago Fire 1:0 Toronto FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Toronto FC and Chicago Fire look evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, pointing instead to a balanced contest in which the result may depend on which team manages key moments more effectively. With only moderate confidence in the outlook, the match appears difficult to separate before kickoff.
The main signal is for an open, high-scoring game, with both teams likely to score. That suggests Toronto FC and Chicago Fire may be willing or able to create opportunities at both ends rather than keeping the match tightly controlled. A draw is one plausible path, while a narrow win for either side also fits the balanced profile. The central expectation is therefore a competitive encounter with goals from both teams, rather than a strongly one-sided performance.
What matters before kick-off
Chicago Fire conclude four-game road swing
The match against Toronto FC marks the final fixture of a four-game MLS away trip for Chicago Fire FC.
Unbeaten runs for both sides
Both Toronto FC and Chicago Fire FC enter the matchup riding five-match unbeaten streaks.
Head-to-head dominance for Chicago
Chicago Fire FC are undefeated in their last eight matches against Toronto FC, including a 2-1 victory in their previous meeting this season at Soldier Field.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.