Orlando City SC — San Diego FC: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.2% |
| 12 | 75.8% | |
| X2 | 56.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 72.5% / 27.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.1% / 9.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.0% / 28.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.2% / 48.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.9% / 68.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.4% / 82.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Orlando City SC have a slight edge over San Diego FC in this MLS meeting, with the assessment carrying a high level of confidence. That advantage does not point to a one-sided contest, however. The available signals suggest a competitive match in which San Diego FC should have opportunities to contribute offensively, keeping the result open for long periods.
The strongest indication is toward a high-scoring game with both teams likely to score. That makes the balance of chances and the response to setbacks especially important, as neither side is expected to be fully contained. A draw remains a plausible outcome, while Orlando City SC appear marginally better placed to turn the match in their favour. The projected scorelines reflect that narrow separation, ranging from an even contest to a home win by a single goal.
What matters before kick-off
First Meeting Between the Teams
Orlando City SC host San Diego FC at Inter.co Stadium in their very first official head-to-head encounter.
Orlando City Squad Availability
According to Orlando City's player status report, Adrián Marín and Braian Ojeda are ruled out with injuries, while Bernardo Rhein has returned to action.
Orlando City's Previous Result
Heading into the match against San Diego FC, Orlando City SC coming off a 3-3 away draw against Minnesota United.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.