Orlando City SC — San Diego FC: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.2% |
| 12 | 75.8% | |
| X2 | 56.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 72.5% / 27.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.1% / 9.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.0% / 28.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.2% / 48.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.9% / 68.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.4% / 82.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Minnesota United 3:3
- 23.08.2026 home Real Salt Lake 2:1
- 20.08.2026 home Chicago Fire 1:2
- 16.08.2026 home FC Cincinnati 1:1
- 02.08.2026 away New York Red Bulls 2:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 3:1
- 23.08.2026 home Colorado Rapids 3:0
- 20.08.2026 away Portland Timbers 1:3
- 16.08.2026 away Los Angeles FC 1:0
- 02.08.2026 away Minnesota United 1:1
This season: Orlando City SC at home vs San Diego FC away
| Metric | Orlando City SC · at home | San Diego FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 5–2–4 | 2–3–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.73 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.55 | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 82% | 50% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Orlando City SC have a slight edge over San Diego FC in this MLS meeting, with the assessment carrying a high level of confidence. That advantage does not point to a one-sided contest, however. The available signals suggest a competitive match in which San Diego FC should have opportunities to contribute offensively, keeping the result open for long periods.
The strongest indication is toward a high-scoring game with both teams likely to score. That makes the balance of chances and the response to setbacks especially important, as neither side is expected to be fully contained. A draw remains a plausible outcome, while Orlando City SC appear marginally better placed to turn the match in their favour. The projected scorelines reflect that narrow separation, ranging from an even contest to a home win by a single goal.
What matters before kick-off
First Meeting Between the Teams
Orlando City SC host San Diego FC at Inter.co Stadium in their very first official head-to-head encounter.
Orlando City Squad Availability
According to Orlando City's player status report, Adrián Marín and Braian Ojeda are ruled out with injuries, while Bernardo Rhein has returned to action.
Orlando City's Previous Result
Heading into the match against San Diego FC, Orlando City SC coming off a 3-3 away draw against Minnesota United.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.