Philadelphia Union — CF Montreal: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.2% |
| 12 | 81.8% | |
| X2 | 31.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.8% / 40.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.6% / 12.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.7% / 31.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.3% / 52.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.3% / 71.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away New York Red Bulls 3:1
- 23.08.2026 away Austin FC 1:1
- 20.08.2026 home Inter Miami 2:2
- 16.08.2026 away New York City 3:2
- 02.08.2026 home Atlanta Utd 3:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Inter Miami 1:7
- 23.08.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 2:2
- 20.08.2026 away Columbus Crew 2:1
- 16.08.2026 home DC United 1:1
- 02.08.2026 home New England Revolution 2:2
This season: Philadelphia Union at home vs CF Montreal away
| Metric | Philadelphia Union · at home | CF Montreal · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 3–4–3 | 2–1–8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.20 | 1.36 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.10 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 91% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 55% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.04.2026 CF Montreal 1:2 Philadelphia Union
- 17.07.2025 Philadelphia Union 2:1 CF Montreal
- 04.05.2025 CF Montreal 1:2 Philadelphia Union
- 30.06.2024 CF Montreal 4:2 Philadelphia Union
- 02.06.2024 Philadelphia Union 2:2 CF Montreal
- 04.06.2023 Philadelphia Union 3:0 CF Montreal
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Philadelphia Union come into this MLS meeting with a clear overall advantage over CF Montreal, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the assessment should be treated with some caution. The available signals point toward a home win as the leading outcome, giving Philadelphia Union the stronger position before kickoff. CF Montreal still have enough attacking potential to remain competitive, particularly in a match expected to offer an open and productive contest.
The scoring outlook favours a high-scoring game, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination could make the match more balanced during periods of play than the overall outcome assessment suggests. Philadelphia Union should have the stronger platform, but CF Montreal’s expected contribution in attack means the hosts may need to manage transitions and defensive pressure carefully. A narrow home victory fits the available indications, while a draw remains a credible alternative if the visitors make effective use of their chances.
What matters before kick-off
Canadian Championship fixture prior to MLS clash
CF Montreal prepared for their MLS match against Philadelphia Union following a midweek 1-1 draw away to Vancouver Whitecaps in the Canadian Championship semifinals.
Philadelphia Union injury update
Philadelphia Union were without midfielder Alejandro Bedoya due to a knee injury ahead of the match against CF Montreal.
Cavan Sullivan's goal contribution streak
Philadelphia Union midfielder Cavan Sullivan entered the match against CF Montreal having registered a goal contribution in four consecutive games.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.