Philadelphia Union — CF Montreal: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.2% |
| 12 | 81.8% | |
| X2 | 31.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.8% / 40.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.6% / 12.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.7% / 31.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.3% / 52.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.3% / 71.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Philadelphia Union come into this MLS meeting with a clear overall advantage over CF Montreal, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the assessment should be treated with some caution. The available signals point toward a home win as the leading outcome, giving Philadelphia Union the stronger position before kickoff. CF Montreal still have enough attacking potential to remain competitive, particularly in a match expected to offer an open and productive contest.
The scoring outlook favours a high-scoring game, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination could make the match more balanced during periods of play than the overall outcome assessment suggests. Philadelphia Union should have the stronger platform, but CF Montreal’s expected contribution in attack means the hosts may need to manage transitions and defensive pressure carefully. A narrow home victory fits the available indications, while a draw remains a credible alternative if the visitors make effective use of their chances.
What matters before kick-off
Canadian Championship fixture prior to MLS clash
CF Montreal prepared for their MLS match against Philadelphia Union following a midweek 1-1 draw away to Vancouver Whitecaps in the Canadian Championship semifinals.
Philadelphia Union injury update
Philadelphia Union were without midfielder Alejandro Bedoya due to a knee injury ahead of the match against CF Montreal.
Cavan Sullivan's goal contribution streak
Philadelphia Union midfielder Cavan Sullivan entered the match against CF Montreal having registered a goal contribution in four consecutive games.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.