Columbus Crew — Colorado Rapids: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.6% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 56.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.7% / 41.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.1% / 20.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.7% / 44.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.3% / 66.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.0% / 83.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.5% / 92.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Columbus Crew have a slight edge over Colorado Rapids in this MLS matchup, although the moderate confidence indicates a contest with limited separation between the teams. The available assessment points toward a medium-scoring game, suggesting that neither side is expected to dominate the attacking phases throughout. Columbus Crew may have the stronger overall position, but Colorado Rapids remain competitive enough to make the result uncertain.
Both teams are likely to score, which supports an open contest with opportunities at both ends rather than a purely cautious encounter. The most plausible match patterns include a balanced draw or a narrow home victory, while a low-margin result would fit the broader signal. Overall, the 1X outlook gives Columbus Crew protection against a draw, with the hosts holding only a measured advantage and Colorado Rapids capable of keeping the game close.
What matters before kick-off
Recent form heading into the match
Colorado Rapids enter the match following a 1-0 win against Real Salt Lake courtesy of a Reggie Cannon goal. Meanwhile, Columbus Crew are on a four-game losing streak in MLS after a 3-1 home defeat to New England Revolution.
Colorado Rapids squad absences
Colorado Rapids travel without injured goalkeeper Zack Steffen, as well as Billo Diop, Nico Hansen, and Ted Ku-DiPietro.
Colorado Rapids post-restart clean sheets
Since resuming play after the FIFA World Cup break, Colorado Rapids have recorded five victories in six matches, with all five wins coming via clean sheets.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.