Inter Miami CF — Atlanta United FC: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.6% |
| 12 | 84.2% | |
| X2 | 26.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.9% / 31.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.6% / 2.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 81.2% / 18.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 63.6% / 36.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 44.3% / 55.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 27.5% / 72.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home CF Montreal 7:1
- 23.08.2026 home Toronto FC 1:2
- 20.08.2026 away Philadelphia Union 2:2
- 16.08.2026 away Nashville SC 1:4
- 02.08.2026 home Columbus Crew 2:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Charlotte 0:2
- 24.08.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 2:1
- 20.08.2026 away Minnesota United 2:1
- 16.08.2026 home New York Red Bulls 2:1
- 02.08.2026 away Philadelphia Union 2:3
This season: Inter Miami CF at home vs Atlanta United FC away
| Metric | Inter Miami CF · at home | Atlanta United FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 4–4–2 | 2–2–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.90 | 0.91 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.82 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 45% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 55% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.10.2025 Inter Miami CF 4:0 Atlanta United FC
- 16.03.2025 Atlanta United FC 1:2 Inter Miami CF
- 10.11.2024 Inter Miami CF 2:3 Atlanta United FC
- 02.11.2024 Atlanta United FC 2:1 Inter Miami CF
- 26.10.2024 Inter Miami CF 2:1 Atlanta United FC
- 19.09.2024 Atlanta United FC 2:2 Inter Miami CF
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Inter Miami CF enter this MLS meeting with a clear advantage over Atlanta United FC. The assessment points to the hosts as clearly stronger, with high confidence in the home outcome. That edge should be reflected in the way Inter Miami CF approach the match, particularly through sustained attacking pressure and the ability to create several scoring opportunities.
The game is expected to have an open, high-scoring character rather than a cautious rhythm. Atlanta United FC are also likely to find the net, so Inter Miami CF may need to manage defensive transitions carefully even while controlling much of the match. The projected scorelines point toward a result shaped by the hosts’ attacking quality, with a narrow or more comfortable home win both plausible. Inter Miami CF should therefore be favoured, while Atlanta United FC remain capable of contributing to an entertaining contest.
What matters before kick-off
Inter Miami host Atlanta United
Inter Miami CF host Atlanta United FC on September 5, 2026, at Nu Stadium in MLS regular season action. The home side enters the match following a 7-1 victory against CF Montréal, where Lionel Messi scored four goals.
Inter Miami standings position
Heading into the fixture against Atlanta United FC, Inter Miami CF holds second place in the MLS Eastern Conference standings with 42 points from 22 matches (12 wins, 4 losses, and 6 draws).
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.