FC Cincinnati — DC United: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.9% |
| 12 | 78.2% | |
| X2 | 39.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.3% / 32.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.6% / 10.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.1% / 28.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.1% / 49.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.7% / 83.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Cincinnati enter this MLS meeting with a clear but not overwhelming advantage over DC United. The assessment points to the hosts being clearly stronger, although the moderate confidence suggests that the gap should not be treated as decisive. FC Cincinnati are expected to take the initiative, with their home setting supporting a more assertive approach and greater control of the match.
The game is projected to have an open, high-scoring character, and both teams are likely to score. That combination could make the contest competitive even if FC Cincinnati remain the more convincing side overall. DC United should have opportunities in attack, particularly if they can respond effectively to the hosts’ pressure and find space during transitions. The main question is whether FC Cincinnati can turn their territorial and attacking edge into enough chances to separate themselves, or whether DC United’s contribution in front of goal keeps the match balanced deep into the game.
What matters before kick-off
FC Cincinnati's 250th MLS match
The game against D.C. United marks FC Cincinnati's 250th MLS regular season match since joining the league ahead of the 2019 season.
FC Cincinnati availability report
FC Cincinnati midfielder Sami Gidi is ruled out with a concussion, while forward Kristian Fletcher is listed as questionable due to a knee injury.
Home head-to-head record at TQL Stadium
FC Cincinnati have only beaten D.C. United once at home, recording a 2-1 victory at TQL Stadium in May 2023.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.