Austin FC — San Jose Earthquakes: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.4% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 60.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.4% / 33.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.4% / 14.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.1% / 35.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.0% / 58.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Portland Timbers 2:1
- 23.08.2026 home Philadelphia Union 1:1
- 20.08.2026 away Seattle Sounders 2:1
- 17.08.2026 home FC Dallas 1:2
- 02.08.2026 away Colorado Rapids 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Houston Dynamo 0:0
- 23.08.2026 home Minnesota United 1:5
- 20.08.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home St. Louis City 1:3
- 02.08.2026 away FC Cincinnati 2:4
This season: Austin FC at home vs San Jose Earthquakes away
| Metric | Austin FC · at home | San Jose Earthquakes · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 4–3–3 | 6–2–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.40 | 1.82 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.27 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 55% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 64% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.04.2026 San Jose Earthquakes 5:1 Austin FC
- 19.10.2025 San Jose Earthquakes 2:1 Austin FC
- 31.08.2025 Austin FC 3:1 San Jose Earthquakes
- 26.05.2024 San Jose Earthquakes 1:1 Austin FC
- 07.04.2024 Austin FC 4:3 San Jose Earthquakes
- 22.10.2023 San Jose Earthquakes 1:1 Austin FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Austin FC and San Jose Earthquakes appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts no decisive advantage, with only moderate confidence separating the possible outcomes. That points to a contest in which small tactical details and the quality of finishing could have a significant influence, rather than one clearly controlled by either side.
The scoring outlook is more defined: this is expected to be an open, high-scoring match, with both Austin FC and San Jose Earthquakes likely to find the net. That could produce a game with changing momentum and opportunities at both ends, particularly if either team commits numbers forward early. A draw is a credible possibility, while a narrow win for either Austin FC or San Jose Earthquakes also fits the balanced profile. Overall, the matchup suggests competitive football and limited separation between the teams.
What matters before kick-off
San Jose Earthquakes Player Availability
San Jose Earthquakes are missing several players due to injury ahead of their MLS away game against Austin FC, including Timo Werner, DeJuan Jones, Nonso Adimabua, Earl Edwards Jr., and Darius Johnson.
Austin FC Injury News
Austin FC forward Myrto Uzuni is listed as out due to a lower-body injury in the official MLS status report ahead of the San Jose match.
Recent MLS Results
Austin FC enter the match following a 2-1 away victory over Portland Timbers, while San Jose Earthquakes played out a 0-0 draw away against Houston Dynamo in their previous league fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.