Austin FC — San Jose Earthquakes: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.4% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 60.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.4% / 33.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.4% / 14.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.1% / 35.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.0% / 58.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Austin FC and San Jose Earthquakes appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts no decisive advantage, with only moderate confidence separating the possible outcomes. That points to a contest in which small tactical details and the quality of finishing could have a significant influence, rather than one clearly controlled by either side.
The scoring outlook is more defined: this is expected to be an open, high-scoring match, with both Austin FC and San Jose Earthquakes likely to find the net. That could produce a game with changing momentum and opportunities at both ends, particularly if either team commits numbers forward early. A draw is a credible possibility, while a narrow win for either Austin FC or San Jose Earthquakes also fits the balanced profile. Overall, the matchup suggests competitive football and limited separation between the teams.
What matters before kick-off
San Jose Earthquakes Player Availability
San Jose Earthquakes are missing several players due to injury ahead of their MLS away game against Austin FC, including Timo Werner, DeJuan Jones, Nonso Adimabua, Earl Edwards Jr., and Darius Johnson.
Austin FC Injury News
Austin FC forward Myrto Uzuni is listed as out due to a lower-body injury in the official MLS status report ahead of the San Jose match.
Recent MLS Results
Austin FC enter the match following a 2-1 away victory over Portland Timbers, while San Jose Earthquakes played out a 0-0 draw away against Houston Dynamo in their previous league fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.