FC Dallas — Sporting Kansas City: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.3% |
| 12 | 82.7% | |
| X2 | 30.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.0% / 40.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.9% / 3.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.9% / 12.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.9% / 30.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.5% / 70.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.7% / 84.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.08.2026 away St. Louis City 3:3
- 23.08.2026 away Vancouver Whitecaps 0:5
- 20.08.2026 away Real Salt Lake 4:3
- 17.08.2026 away Austin FC 2:1
- 02.08.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 0:3
- 24.08.2026 away Atlanta Utd 1:2
- 20.08.2026 home St. Louis City 1:1
- 16.08.2026 away Colorado Rapids 0:2
- 02.08.2026 home Houston Dynamo 0:2
This season: FC Dallas at home vs Sporting Kansas City away
| Metric | FC Dallas · at home | Sporting Kansas City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 3–4–2 | 2–0–9 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.73 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.78 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 91% |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 45% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 15.06.2025 Sporting Kansas City 2:4 FC Dallas
- 30.03.2025 FC Dallas 2:1 Sporting Kansas City
- 20.10.2024 FC Dallas 2:1 Sporting Kansas City
- 08.07.2024 Sporting Kansas City 3:2 FC Dallas
- 01.06.2023 Sporting Kansas City 2:1 FC Dallas
- 19.03.2023 FC Dallas 2:1 Sporting Kansas City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Dallas enter this MLS meeting with the stronger overall outlook, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the advantage should not be treated as decisive. Sporting Kansas City still have enough attacking potential to make the contest competitive, and the assessment points toward both sides finding the net. That combination gives the match an open profile rather than one likely to be controlled entirely by the hosts.
The expected pattern is a game in which FC Dallas have the better chance of shaping the result, while Sporting Kansas City can create periods of pressure and respond on the scoreboard. The high-scoring signal supports an active match with several meaningful opportunities at both ends. A narrow home win appears the most fitting interpretation of the available indicators, with 2-1 standing out among the plausible scorelines, while 2-0 and 3-1 also reflect the balance between FC Dallas's advantage and Sporting Kansas City's scoring threat.
What matters before kick-off
Sporting Kansas City Availability Update
Midfielders Zorhan Bassong, Jake Davis, and Owen Wolff are ruled out for Sporting Kansas City ahead of the match against FC Dallas. Calvin Harris and Ian James are listed as questionable.
FC Dallas Returns to Toyota Stadium
FC Dallas returns to Toyota Stadium for their first home match since mid-May 2026. The Texas side completed a stretch of 11 consecutive away fixtures across all competitions.
Anderson Julio Out for FC Dallas
FC Dallas forward Anderson Julio is listed as out with a lower body injury in the official MLS availability report for the match against Sporting Kansas City.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.