FC Dallas — Sporting Kansas City: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.3% |
| 12 | 82.7% | |
| X2 | 30.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.0% / 40.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.9% / 3.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.9% / 12.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.9% / 30.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.5% / 70.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.7% / 84.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Dallas enter this MLS meeting with the stronger overall outlook, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the advantage should not be treated as decisive. Sporting Kansas City still have enough attacking potential to make the contest competitive, and the assessment points toward both sides finding the net. That combination gives the match an open profile rather than one likely to be controlled entirely by the hosts.
The expected pattern is a game in which FC Dallas have the better chance of shaping the result, while Sporting Kansas City can create periods of pressure and respond on the scoreboard. The high-scoring signal supports an active match with several meaningful opportunities at both ends. A narrow home win appears the most fitting interpretation of the available indicators, with 2-1 standing out among the plausible scorelines, while 2-0 and 3-1 also reflect the balance between FC Dallas's advantage and Sporting Kansas City's scoring threat.
What matters before kick-off
Sporting Kansas City Availability Update
Midfielders Zorhan Bassong, Jake Davis, and Owen Wolff are ruled out for Sporting Kansas City ahead of the match against FC Dallas. Calvin Harris and Ian James are listed as questionable.
FC Dallas Returns to Toyota Stadium
FC Dallas returns to Toyota Stadium for their first home match since mid-May 2026. The Texas side completed a stretch of 11 consecutive away fixtures across all competitions.
Anderson Julio Out for FC Dallas
FC Dallas forward Anderson Julio is listed as out with a lower body injury in the official MLS availability report for the match against Sporting Kansas City.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.