Portland Timbers — Minnesota United FC: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.6% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 60.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.7% / 32.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.4% / 13.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.5% / 34.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.6% / 56.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.1% / 74.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.6% / 87.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Austin FC 1:2
- 23.08.2026 away Los Angeles FC 1:1
- 20.08.2026 home San Diego FC 3:1
- 16.08.2026 away Chicago Fire 1:2
- 02.08.2026 home Seattle Sounders 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Orlando City 3:3
- 23.08.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 5:1
- 20.08.2026 home Atlanta Utd 1:2
- 16.08.2026 away Real Salt Lake 1:1
- 02.08.2026 home San Diego FC 1:1
This season: Portland Timbers at home vs Minnesota United FC away
| Metric | Portland Timbers · at home | Minnesota United FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 6–2–3 | 5–2–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.18 | 1.73 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.64 | 1.91 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 91% | 82% |
| Both teams scored | 91% | 82% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 19.04.2026 Minnesota United FC 2:0 Portland Timbers
- 31.08.2025 Minnesota United FC 1:1 Portland Timbers
- 20.07.2025 Portland Timbers 1:1 Minnesota United FC
- 30.06.2024 Portland Timbers 3:2 Minnesota United FC
- 19.05.2024 Minnesota United FC 2:1 Portland Timbers
- 02.07.2023 Minnesota United FC 4:1 Portland Timbers
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Portland Timbers and Minnesota United FC appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, with moderate confidence in a balanced contest. That suggests the match may be decided by small differences in execution rather than sustained control from one team.
The scoring outlook points toward an open game, with both teams likely to find the net. The listed scorelines range from a draw to a narrow win for either Portland Timbers or Minnesota United FC, reinforcing the expectation of a close contest rather than a one-sided performance. Both sides should have opportunities to create danger, while defensive concentration may prove important in determining whether the match remains level or edges toward a narrow result.
What matters before kick-off
Official Player Availability Report
According to the MLS Player Availability Report, Portland Timbers will be without Alexander Aravena (hip), Brandon Bye (knee), and Juan Mosquera (foot/ankle). Minnesota United FC are ruled out with injuries to Bongokuhle Hlongwane (knee) and Peter Stroud (lower extremity).
Goose Hollow Night Theme at Providence Park
The match at Providence Park is designated as Goose Hollow Night, featuring special giveaways for the first 10,000 fans alongside stadium-wide promotional events.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.