Portland Timbers — Minnesota United FC: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.6% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 60.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.7% / 32.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.4% / 13.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.5% / 34.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.6% / 56.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.1% / 74.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.6% / 87.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Portland Timbers and Minnesota United FC appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, with moderate confidence in a balanced contest. That suggests the match may be decided by small differences in execution rather than sustained control from one team.
The scoring outlook points toward an open game, with both teams likely to find the net. The listed scorelines range from a draw to a narrow win for either Portland Timbers or Minnesota United FC, reinforcing the expectation of a close contest rather than a one-sided performance. Both sides should have opportunities to create danger, while defensive concentration may prove important in determining whether the match remains level or edges toward a narrow result.
What matters before kick-off
Official Player Availability Report
According to the MLS Player Availability Report, Portland Timbers will be without Alexander Aravena (hip), Brandon Bye (knee), and Juan Mosquera (foot/ankle). Minnesota United FC are ruled out with injuries to Bongokuhle Hlongwane (knee) and Peter Stroud (lower extremity).
Goose Hollow Night Theme at Providence Park
The match at Providence Park is designated as Goose Hollow Night, featuring special giveaways for the first 10,000 fans alongside stadium-wide promotional events.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.