Los Angeles Galaxy — New England Revolution: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.6% |
| 12 | 75.2% | |
| X2 | 63.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.7% / 31.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.7% / 4.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.1% / 12.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.0% / 33.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.3% / 54.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.6% / 73.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.6% / 86.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Los Angeles Galaxy and New England Revolution appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available indicators point to a contest with a moderate level of confidence rather than a clear favorite, giving both sides a credible route to control periods of the match. The balance between the teams suggests that small details in transition, possession, and finishing could have a significant influence on the outcome.
The scoring outlook is more open than cautious, with both teams likely to score. That points toward an engaging match in which neither defense can expect an easy assignment, particularly if the game becomes stretched. Los Angeles Galaxy may look to use home advantage to apply pressure, while New England Revolution have enough attacking potential to respond and keep the contest competitive. A draw or a narrow win for either side would fit the overall profile, with a result shaped by efficiency in the final third rather than a clear difference in quality.
What matters before kick-off
Player availability report
According to the official MLS player availability report, LA Galaxy are without João Klauss (foot) and Elijah Wynder (ankle). New England Revolution striker Leo Campana remains sidelined due to a lower-body injury.
New England Revolution road stretch
The New England Revolution head west to face LA Galaxy in the middle of a four-game away stretch, having earned back-to-back road wins including a 3-1 victory over the Columbus Crew.
LA Galaxy Central American Heritage Night
The home match at Dignity Health Sports Park coincides with LA Galaxy hosting their 8th Annual Central American Heritage Celebration.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.