Vancouver Whitecaps FC — DC United: Win probabilities, 27.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.4% |
| 12 | 88.4% | |
| X2 | 21.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.4% / 45.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.5% / 1.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.9% / 12.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.2% / 27.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.4% / 48.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.1% / 67.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.6% / 82.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 7.00 → now 7.50 |
Match preview
Vancouver Whitecaps FC host DC United in an MLS fixture scheduled for 27 September 2026 at 02:30 UTC. The available assessment gives Vancouver Whitecaps FC a clear advantage, with high confidence in the home side’s position. The signal points toward a home win, although the match should still be approached as a forecast rather than a certainty.
The scoring outlook is high, suggesting an open contest with several notable attacking moments possible. At the same time, the assessment treats both teams scoring as a balanced possibility rather than a strong expectation. The most likely scorelines listed are 2:0, 3:0, and 2:1, all of which maintain the broader view that Vancouver Whitecaps FC are better placed to control the outcome. DC United’s route into the game would likely depend on resisting sustained home pressure and making their opportunities count, while Vancouver Whitecaps FC will aim to turn their advantage into a composed attacking performance.
What matters before kick-off
Vancouver Whitecaps' convincing recent win
Vancouver Whitecaps FC enter the match following a 3-0 away victory against Real Salt Lake. Brian White, Thomas Müller, and Yadaly Diaby all scored in that match.
D.C. United's home defeat to Charlotte FC
D.C. United come into the match following a 2-1 home defeat against Charlotte FC. Defender Lucas Bartlett scored the solitary goal for the Black-and-Red.
All-time head-to-head record
D.C. United hold a 5-3-3 advantage in the all-time MLS regular-season series against Vancouver Whitecaps FC across 11 total meetings.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.