FC Cincinnati — San Jose Earthquakes: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.5% |
| 12 | 76.8% | |
| X2 | 47.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 72.9% / 27.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.1% / 25.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.5% / 65.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.4% / 80.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Cincinnati hold a slight edge over San Jose Earthquakes in this MLS matchup, with the assessment indicating a high level of confidence in the home side’s advantage. That does not point to a one-sided contest, however, as the expected balance of the game remains relatively close. FC Cincinnati should have the stronger platform at home, while San Jose Earthquakes are considered capable of staying competitive and creating meaningful pressure.
The main signal is for an open, high-scoring match in which both teams are likely to find the net. That suggests the game could develop through attacking exchanges rather than a cautious battle for control. FC Cincinnati’s home advantage gives them the better overall position, but San Jose Earthquakes have enough attacking potential in this outlook to make the result difficult to settle early. A home result is the marginally stronger reading, with a draw also consistent with the projected shape of the contest.
What matters before kick-off
FC Cincinnati suspensions
Defender Matt Miazga and midfielder Gerardo Valenzuela are suspended for the match against the San Jose Earthquakes.
Final league match before Leagues Cup
This match marks FC Cincinnati's final MLS regular season fixture before competing in the Leagues Cup.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.