FC Cincinnati — San Jose Earthquakes: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.5% |
| 12 | 76.8% | |
| X2 | 47.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 72.9% / 27.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.1% / 25.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.5% / 65.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.4% / 80.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 away Columbus Crew 1:2
- 23.07.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 4:3
- 24.05.2026 home Orlando City 6:2
- 17.05.2026 away San Diego FC 3:3
- 14.05.2026 home Inter Miami 3:5
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 1:1
- 23.07.2026 home Orlando City 0:4
- 24.05.2026 away Portland Timbers 3:1
- 17.05.2026 home FC Dallas 2:3
- 14.05.2026 away Seattle Sounders 2:3
This season: FC Cincinnati at home vs San Jose Earthquakes away
| Metric | FC Cincinnati · at home | San Jose Earthquakes · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 5–1–2 | 6–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 2.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.13 | 1.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 16.06.2024 San Jose Earthquakes 2:4 FC Cincinnati
- 11.09.2022 FC Cincinnati 6:0 San Jose Earthquakes
- 05.05.2019 San Jose Earthquakes 1:0 FC Cincinnati
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Cincinnati hold a slight edge over San Jose Earthquakes in this MLS matchup, with the assessment indicating a high level of confidence in the home side’s advantage. That does not point to a one-sided contest, however, as the expected balance of the game remains relatively close. FC Cincinnati should have the stronger platform at home, while San Jose Earthquakes are considered capable of staying competitive and creating meaningful pressure.
The main signal is for an open, high-scoring match in which both teams are likely to find the net. That suggests the game could develop through attacking exchanges rather than a cautious battle for control. FC Cincinnati’s home advantage gives them the better overall position, but San Jose Earthquakes have enough attacking potential in this outlook to make the result difficult to settle early. A home result is the marginally stronger reading, with a draw also consistent with the projected shape of the contest.
What matters before kick-off
FC Cincinnati suspensions
Defender Matt Miazga and midfielder Gerardo Valenzuela are suspended for the match against the San Jose Earthquakes.
Final league match before Leagues Cup
This match marks FC Cincinnati's final MLS regular season fixture before competing in the Leagues Cup.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.