FC Cincinnati — San Jose Earthquakes: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.3% |
| 12 | 77.5% | |
| X2 | 51.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 71.5% / 28.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.8% / 3.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.6% / 10.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.2% / 27.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.1% / 67.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.6% / 82.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Cincinnati have a slight edge over San Jose Earthquakes in this MLS matchup, although the moderate confidence level points to a competitive contest rather than a clear mismatch. The available assessment favours the home side, with the 1X signal indicating that FC Cincinnati are the more likely team to avoid defeat.
The game is expected to be high-scoring, and both FC Cincinnati and San Jose Earthquakes are considered likely to find the net. That makes an open match plausible, with neither defence expected to have complete control for long periods. The projected scorelines remain close, including draws and a narrow home win, which underlines the limited margin between the teams. FC Cincinnati should have the stronger overall position because of home advantage and the slight pre-match lean, but San Jose Earthquakes have enough attacking potential to keep the result uncertain deep into the match.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.