Inter Miami CF — Columbus Crew: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.3% |
| 12 | 80.5% | |
| X2 | 36.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.2% / 33.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.9% / 3.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.6% / 10.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.2% / 27.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.1% / 67.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.6% / 82.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Inter Miami CF enter this MLS meeting with a clear but not overwhelming advantage over Columbus Crew. The assessment points to the hosts being stronger overall, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the match remains open to different developments. Inter Miami CF are expected to take the initiative, while Columbus Crew should have enough attacking threat to remain involved rather than simply defend for long periods.
The clearest theme is a high-scoring contest in which both teams are likely to find the net. That makes defensive control particularly important, as either side could create opportunities in a match with an open rhythm. The most representative scorelines are 2:1 and 3:1 in favour of Inter Miami CF, with 1:1 also reflecting the possibility that Columbus Crew can resist the home side's pressure. Overall, the outlook favours Inter Miami CF, but the expected attacking quality from both teams points to a competitive game rather than a one-sided affair.
What matters before kick-off
Inter Miami's Winning Streak
Inter Miami CF enters the match on a six-game winning streak in the MLS regular season. In their previous fixture, they secured a 1-0 away victory against CF Montreal.
Columbus Crew Recent Form
Ahead of their trip to Miami, Columbus Crew secured a 2-1 home victory over FC Cincinnati in their previous regular season match.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.