New York Red Bulls — Orlando City SC: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.7% |
| 12 | 76.1% | |
| X2 | 60.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 73.8% / 26.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.7% / 9.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.3% / 26.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 52.9% / 47.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 33.4% / 66.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.6% / 81.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
New York Red Bulls and Orlando City SC appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives no clear advantage to either side, suggesting a contest likely to be decided by small details rather than a significant difference in overall strength.
The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both teams likely to score. That points toward a game in which attacking phases may carry more weight than defensive control, while the balanced outlook leaves several plausible scorelines. New York Red Bulls may look to make the most of home conditions, but Orlando City SC should have sufficient attacking threat to remain competitive throughout.
What matters before kick-off
Red Bull New York suspensions
New York Red Bulls will be without Adri Mehmeti following a red card against Charlotte FC, alongside Jorge Ruvalcaba and Omar Valencia who serve suspensions due to yellow card accumulation.
Orlando City shutout streak
Orlando City enter the match on a two-game winning and clean-sheet run in MLS action, having beaten the San Jose Earthquakes 4-0 and league-leading Nashville SC 1-0.
Head-to-head record
New York Red Bulls earned a 2-1 victory over Orlando City SC in the season opener on February 21 and remain undefeated in their last six meetings with the Lions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.