New York Red Bulls — Orlando City SC: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.7% |
| 12 | 76.1% | |
| X2 | 60.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 73.8% / 26.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.7% / 9.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.3% / 26.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 52.9% / 47.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 33.4% / 66.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.6% / 81.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.07.2026 home Charlotte 0:2
- 23.07.2026 away Philadelphia Union 1:3
- 24.05.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 2:1
- 17.05.2026 home New York City 1:1
- 14.05.2026 home Columbus Crew 3:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 home Nashville SC 1:0
- 23.07.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 4:0
- 24.05.2026 away FC Cincinnati 2:6
- 17.05.2026 home Atlanta Utd 1:1
- 14.05.2026 home Philadelphia Union 4:3
This season: New York Red Bulls at home vs Orlando City SC away
| Metric | New York Red Bulls · at home | Orlando City SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 3–2–3 | 2–1–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.63 | 1.44 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 3.44 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 78% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 44% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.02.2026 Orlando City SC 1:2 New York Red Bulls
- 12.04.2025 Orlando City SC 0:0 New York Red Bulls
- 15.03.2025 New York Red Bulls 2:2 Orlando City SC
- 01.12.2024 Orlando City SC 0:1 New York Red Bulls
- 02.06.2024 New York Red Bulls 1:0 Orlando City SC
- 30.03.2024 Orlando City SC 1:1 New York Red Bulls
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
New York Red Bulls and Orlando City SC appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives no clear advantage to either side, suggesting a contest likely to be decided by small details rather than a significant difference in overall strength.
The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both teams likely to score. That points toward a game in which attacking phases may carry more weight than defensive control, while the balanced outlook leaves several plausible scorelines. New York Red Bulls may look to make the most of home conditions, but Orlando City SC should have sufficient attacking threat to remain competitive throughout.
What matters before kick-off
Red Bull New York suspensions
New York Red Bulls will be without Adri Mehmeti following a red card against Charlotte FC, alongside Jorge Ruvalcaba and Omar Valencia who serve suspensions due to yellow card accumulation.
Orlando City shutout streak
Orlando City enter the match on a two-game winning and clean-sheet run in MLS action, having beaten the San Jose Earthquakes 4-0 and league-leading Nashville SC 1-0.
Head-to-head record
New York Red Bulls earned a 2-1 victory over Orlando City SC in the season opener on February 21 and remain undefeated in their last six meetings with the Lions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.