New York Red Bulls — Orlando City SC: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.3% |
| 12 | 76.9% | |
| X2 | 53.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 71.8% / 28.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.6% / 3.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.7% / 10.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.0% / 28.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.2% / 48.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.9% / 68.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.4% / 82.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X2 | was 3.20 → now 3.00 |
Match preview
New York Red Bulls hold a slight edge over Orlando City SC in this MLS meeting, although the moderate confidence suggests a competitive contest rather than a one-sided occasion. The available assessment points toward an open match, with enough attacking potential on both sides to create sustained pressure and chances.
Both teams are likely to score, making the balance between defensive discipline and attacking efficiency particularly important. New York Red Bulls may have the stronger overall position, especially with home advantage, but Orlando City SC are expected to remain involved throughout and should have opportunities of their own. The most plausible scenarios point to a close game with several goals, where a narrow home win and a draw are both credible outcomes. The central expectation is a high-scoring encounter in which neither side is likely to control the match completely.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.