Philadelphia Union — Atlanta United FC: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.9% |
| 12 | 79.0% | |
| X2 | 38.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.3% / 40.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.4% / 15.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.4% / 36.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.2% / 76.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.3% / 88.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Philadelphia Union come into this MLS meeting with the clearer statistical edge over Atlanta United FC, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the hosts’ advantage should be treated with some caution. The available assessment points toward a high-scoring contest rather than a tightly controlled defensive match, giving the game an open and potentially changeable character.
Atlanta United FC are also considered likely to contribute on the scoresheet, so Philadelphia Union may need to manage attacking pressure at both ends rather than rely solely on territorial control. The projected score patterns include a narrow home win, a more comfortable Philadelphia Union victory, and a draw, which reflects some uncertainty despite the stronger signal toward the hosts. Overall, Philadelphia Union appear better positioned, with a slight risk that Atlanta United FC’s attacking involvement keeps the result close.
What matters before kick-off
Recent form ahead of the match
Philadelphia Union enter the fixture on a two-match MLS winning streak after defeating Seattle Sounders 1-0 in their previous match. Meanwhile, Atlanta United suffered a 4-1 defeat against New England Revolution in their last outing.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.