Philadelphia Union — Atlanta United FC: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.9% |
| 12 | 79.0% | |
| X2 | 38.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.3% / 40.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.4% / 15.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.4% / 36.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.2% / 76.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.3% / 88.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 home Seattle Sounders 1:0
- 23.07.2026 home New York Red Bulls 3:1
- 25.05.2026 away Inter Miami 4:6
- 17.05.2026 home Columbus Crew 1:1
- 14.05.2026 away Orlando City 3:4
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 away New England Revolution 1:4
- 23.07.2026 away Charlotte 2:2
- 18.07.2026 away Nashville SC 0:1
- 24.05.2026 away Columbus Crew 0:2
- 17.05.2026 away Orlando City 1:1
This season: Philadelphia Union at home vs Atlanta United FC away
| Metric | Philadelphia Union · at home | Atlanta United FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 2–3–3 | 1–2–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.88 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.88 | 1.78 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 44% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.03.2026 Atlanta United FC 3:1 Philadelphia Union
- 18.05.2025 Atlanta United FC 0:1 Philadelphia Union
- 20.04.2025 Philadelphia Union 3:0 Atlanta United FC
- 29.09.2024 Philadelphia Union 1:1 Atlanta United FC
- 14.04.2024 Atlanta United FC 2:2 Philadelphia Union
- 05.10.2023 Philadelphia Union 3:2 Atlanta United FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Philadelphia Union come into this MLS meeting with the clearer statistical edge over Atlanta United FC, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the hosts’ advantage should be treated with some caution. The available assessment points toward a high-scoring contest rather than a tightly controlled defensive match, giving the game an open and potentially changeable character.
Atlanta United FC are also considered likely to contribute on the scoresheet, so Philadelphia Union may need to manage attacking pressure at both ends rather than rely solely on territorial control. The projected score patterns include a narrow home win, a more comfortable Philadelphia Union victory, and a draw, which reflects some uncertainty despite the stronger signal toward the hosts. Overall, Philadelphia Union appear better positioned, with a slight risk that Atlanta United FC’s attacking involvement keeps the result close.
What matters before kick-off
Recent form ahead of the match
Philadelphia Union enter the fixture on a two-match MLS winning streak after defeating Seattle Sounders 1-0 in their previous match. Meanwhile, Atlanta United suffered a 4-1 defeat against New England Revolution in their last outing.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.