Philadelphia Union — Atlanta United FC: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.6% |
| 12 | 76.7% | |
| X2 | 42.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.5% / 39.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.0% / 16.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.9% / 38.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.7% / 60.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.9% / 78.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.5% / 89.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Philadelphia Union have a slight edge over Atlanta United FC in this MLS matchup, although the low confidence level points to a contest with considerable uncertainty. The home side is favoured in the qualitative assessment, but the gap between the teams does not appear large enough to expect a straightforward game. Atlanta United FC should remain competitive, particularly if they can limit Philadelphia Union’s opportunities and keep the match balanced through the opening stages.
A medium-scoring encounter is the most likely general pattern. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the game could develop in either direction depending on which side makes better use of its chances. The most plausible scorelines include 1-1, 2-0, and 2-1, reflecting both the possibility of a draw and a narrow Philadelphia Union victory. Overall, the hosts hold the advantage, but the uncertainty makes a controlled, close match more likely than a decisive result.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.