DC United — Nashville SC: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 59.7% |
| 12 | 74.8% | |
| X2 | 65.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.3% / 25.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.0% / 72.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.3% / 86.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
DC United and Nashville SC look evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a decisive overall advantage. That suggests a game likely to be shaped by small tactical details, defensive concentration, and how effectively each team manages the phases without the ball.
The scoring outlook is medium, while the possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 0:1, and 1:0, reflecting a contest that could remain close throughout. The market signal gives Nashville SC a slight edge in avoiding defeat, but the narrow range of projected outcomes also leaves room for DC United to take the points. A draw appears particularly consistent with the assessment, although the match could turn on a single decisive moment.
What matters before kick-off
DC United's recent MLS result
In their previous MLS fixture, DC United secured a 2-1 victory over Toronto FC, sealed by a 100th-minute penalty from Tai Baribo.
Nashville SC's recent MLS result
In their most recent MLS match, Nashville SC suffered a 1-0 away defeat against Orlando City SC, which was only their second loss of the season.
Head-to-head record between Nashville SC and DC United
Nashville SC remain unbeaten in their last three matches against DC United, following a 1-0 victory at Audi Field last season and a 2-2 draw in May.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.