DC United — Nashville SC: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 56.9% |
| 12 | 72.9% | |
| X2 | 70.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.0% / 45.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.8% / 24.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.5% / 71.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.6% / 86.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.6% / 94.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
DC United face Nashville SC in an MLS meeting that looks relatively balanced, although the visitors hold a slight edge. The assessment points toward a moderate level of confidence rather than a decisive difference between the teams. That suggests DC United should remain competitive, while Nashville SC may have a somewhat stronger platform from which to control the key moments.
The match is projected to have a medium-scoring character, with both sides capable of contributing but no clear indication that both teams will score. A cautious opening could therefore be followed by a more open second half if one team takes the lead. The most plausible scenarios include a level contest or a narrow Nashville SC victory, leaving the visitors with the marginal advantage while DC United remain firmly in contention.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.