DC United — Nashville SC: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 59.7% |
| 12 | 74.8% | |
| X2 | 65.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.3% / 25.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.0% / 72.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.3% / 86.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 home Toronto FC 2:1
- 23.07.2026 away Houston Dynamo 1:1
- 24.05.2026 home CF Montreal 4:4
- 17.05.2026 home St. Louis City 1:1
- 14.05.2026 home Chicago Fire 1:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 away Orlando City 0:1
- 23.07.2026 home CF Montreal 1:0
- 18.07.2026 home Atlanta Utd 1:0
- 24.05.2026 home New York City 2:1
- 18.05.2026 home Los Angeles FC 3:2
This season: DC United at home vs Nashville SC away
| Metric | DC United · at home | Nashville SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 3–2–3 | 4–2–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.63 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.13 | 0.38 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 13% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 10.05.2026 Nashville SC 2:2 DC United
- 29.06.2025 DC United 0:1 Nashville SC
- 18.05.2025 Nashville SC 0:0 DC United
- 03.10.2024 Nashville SC 3:4 DC United
- 14.07.2024 DC United 2:1 Nashville SC
- 02.07.2023 Nashville SC 2:0 DC United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
DC United and Nashville SC look evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a decisive overall advantage. That suggests a game likely to be shaped by small tactical details, defensive concentration, and how effectively each team manages the phases without the ball.
The scoring outlook is medium, while the possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 0:1, and 1:0, reflecting a contest that could remain close throughout. The market signal gives Nashville SC a slight edge in avoiding defeat, but the narrow range of projected outcomes also leaves room for DC United to take the points. A draw appears particularly consistent with the assessment, although the match could turn on a single decisive moment.
What matters before kick-off
DC United's recent MLS result
In their previous MLS fixture, DC United secured a 2-1 victory over Toronto FC, sealed by a 100th-minute penalty from Tai Baribo.
Nashville SC's recent MLS result
In their most recent MLS match, Nashville SC suffered a 1-0 away defeat against Orlando City SC, which was only their second loss of the season.
Head-to-head record between Nashville SC and DC United
Nashville SC remain unbeaten in their last three matches against DC United, following a 1-0 victory at Audi Field last season and a 2-2 draw in May.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.