CF Montreal — New England Revolution: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.1% |
| 12 | 73.9% | |
| X2 | 52.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.5% / 42.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.8% / 21.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.4% / 45.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.1% / 67.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.1% / 83.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.0% / 93.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CF Montreal hold a slight edge over New England Revolution in this MLS matchup, with the overall assessment giving the home side the stronger position. The balance is not expected to be one-sided, however, and New England Revolution remain capable of keeping the contest close. The main signal points toward protection for CF Montreal against defeat rather than a decisive home victory.
A medium-scoring game is the most likely general profile. The assessment of both teams scoring is evenly balanced, so there is no clear reason to expect either a clean sheet or goals at both ends. The suggested scorelines reflect that uncertainty, ranging from a level contest to narrow wins for CF Montreal. A 1-1 draw fits the competitive nature of the matchup, while 2-1 and 1-0 indicate how the home advantage could become decisive in a tight game. Overall, this is a fixture where CF Montreal have a slight edge, but the margins remain limited and a close result is the central expectation.
What matters before kick-off
New England's recent result
New England Revolution enter the match following a 4-1 home victory against Atlanta United FC in their previous MLS fixture.
CF Montreal's recent form
CF Montreal enter the fixture following a 1-0 home loss to Inter Miami CF and have gone scoreless in three consecutive MLS matches.
Victor Loturi milestone
CF Montreal midfielder Victor Loturi could set a club record by appearing in his 52nd consecutive MLS game for the team as a field player.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.