CF Montreal — New England Revolution: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.1% |
| 12 | 73.9% | |
| X2 | 52.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.5% / 42.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.8% / 21.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.4% / 45.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.1% / 67.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.1% / 83.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.0% / 93.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 home Inter Miami 0:1
- 23.07.2026 away Nashville SC 0:1
- 17.07.2026 home Toronto FC 0:0
- 24.05.2026 away DC United 4:4
- 16.05.2026 home Chicago Fire 0:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 home Atlanta Utd 4:1
- 23.07.2026 home Toronto FC 0:0
- 24.05.2026 away Charlotte 0:1
- 17.05.2026 home Minnesota United 2:1
- 14.05.2026 home Nashville SC 0:3
This season: CF Montreal at home vs New England Revolution away
| Metric | CF Montreal · at home | New England Revolution · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 6 |
| W–D–L | 3–2–3 | 1–1–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 0.83 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 04.04.2026 New England Revolution 3:0 CF Montreal
- 26.07.2025 New England Revolution 1:3 CF Montreal
- 01.06.2025 CF Montreal 0:3 New England Revolution
- 19.09.2024 New England Revolution 2:2 CF Montreal
- 25.08.2024 CF Montreal 0:5 New England Revolution
- 27.08.2023 CF Montreal 1:0 New England Revolution
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CF Montreal hold a slight edge over New England Revolution in this MLS matchup, with the overall assessment giving the home side the stronger position. The balance is not expected to be one-sided, however, and New England Revolution remain capable of keeping the contest close. The main signal points toward protection for CF Montreal against defeat rather than a decisive home victory.
A medium-scoring game is the most likely general profile. The assessment of both teams scoring is evenly balanced, so there is no clear reason to expect either a clean sheet or goals at both ends. The suggested scorelines reflect that uncertainty, ranging from a level contest to narrow wins for CF Montreal. A 1-1 draw fits the competitive nature of the matchup, while 2-1 and 1-0 indicate how the home advantage could become decisive in a tight game. Overall, this is a fixture where CF Montreal have a slight edge, but the margins remain limited and a close result is the central expectation.
What matters before kick-off
New England's recent result
New England Revolution enter the match following a 4-1 home victory against Atlanta United FC in their previous MLS fixture.
CF Montreal's recent form
CF Montreal enter the fixture following a 1-0 home loss to Inter Miami CF and have gone scoreless in three consecutive MLS matches.
Victor Loturi milestone
CF Montreal midfielder Victor Loturi could set a club record by appearing in his 52nd consecutive MLS game for the team as a field player.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.