CF Montreal — New England Revolution: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.2% |
| 12 | 73.8% | |
| X2 | 57.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.1% / 41.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.6% / 21.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.4% / 45.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.1% / 67.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.1% / 83.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.0% / 93.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CF Montreal have a slight edge over New England Revolution in this MLS meeting, although the assessment remains moderate rather than decisive. The home side’s advantage suggests that playing in Montreal could be an important factor, but the matchup does not point to a one-sided contest. New England Revolution should remain competitive and have enough attacking potential to influence the game.
The scoring outlook is medium, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes a balanced opening and periods of shared control plausible, while the result could depend on which side manages the key moments more effectively. CF Montreal appear marginally better placed to avoid defeat, but a draw remains a realistic outcome. The overall signal therefore favors the hosts or a level score, with the game expected to stay competitive rather than become an open, high-scoring encounter.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.