Valur Reykjavik — FC Nordsjaelland: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 19.1% |
| 12 | 88.7% | |
| X2 | 92.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.0% / 2.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.5% / 12.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.8% / 29.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.8% / 50.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.6% / 69.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.5% / 83.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Valur Reykjavik host FC Nordsjaelland in the UEFA Conference League, Qualification, with the available assessment giving the visitors a clear advantage. Confidence in that reading is high, suggesting FC Nordsjaelland should enter the match as the stronger side. Valur Reykjavik will need to manage the contest carefully, particularly against an opponent associated with a stronger overall attacking outlook.
The game is projected to have a high-scoring character, although the possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced rather than clearly favoured either way. That combination points to a match in which FC Nordsjaelland’s attacking strength is the main factor, while Valur Reykjavik may still have opportunities if they can create an open contest. The central expectation is therefore an away victory, with the visitors’ superiority providing the clearest signal while the exact scoring pattern remains less certain.
What matters before kick-off
FC Nordsjaelland arrived in Reykjavik for the first leg
FC Nordsjaelland arrived in Iceland on August 5, 2026, ahead of their UEFA Conference League third qualifying round first-leg tie against Valur.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.