Match intelligence

Bohemians Dublin FC — FC Midtjylland: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026

League: UEFA Conference League, Qualification · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Bohemians Dublin FC0
:
2FC Midtjylland
Locked signal W2 Probability 67.8% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 14.4% Home win Bohemians Dublin FC
X 17.8% Draw
W2 67.8% Away win FC Midtjylland
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
X284.4%
Both teams to score
Yes56.3%
Totals 2.5
Over63.1%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X34.1%
1281.5%
X284.4%
Both teams to scoreYes/No56.3% / 43.7%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 96.3% / 3.7%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 83.4% / 16.6%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 63.1% / 36.9%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 40.9% / 59.1%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 22.9% / 77.1%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 11.1% / 88.9%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Bohemians Dublin FC × FC Midtjylland
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 3.7%
0:1 8.9%
0:2 9.8%
0:3 7.4%
0:4 4.2%
0:5 1.9%
1
1:0 4.0%
1:1 8.5%
1:2 9.8%
1:3 7.4%
1:4 4.2%
1:5 1.9%
2
2:0 1.9%
2:1 4.3%
2:2 4.9%
2:3 3.7%
2:4 2.1%
2:5 0.9%
3
3:0 0.6%
3:1 1.4%
3:2 1.6%
3:3 1.2%
3:4 0.7%
3:5 0.3%
4
4:0 0.2%
4:1 0.4%
4:2 0.4%
4:3 0.3%
4:4 0.2%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.0%
5:1 0.1%
5:2 0.1%
5:3 0.1%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
0:29.8%
1:29.8%
0:18.9%
1:18.5%
0:37.4%
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Bohemians Dublin FC face a demanding test against FC Midtjylland in the UEFA Conference League qualification. The available assessment gives FC Midtjylland a clear advantage, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should not be treated as decisive before the match. Bohemians Dublin FC will need to manage the visitors’ strengths carefully and remain disciplined throughout the game.

The scoring outlook points towards an open contest with opportunities at both ends. A high-scoring match is considered more likely, but whether both teams find the net remains finely balanced. That leaves Bohemians Dublin FC with a credible route into the game if they can make their attacking moments count, while FC Midtjylland appear better placed to control the overall balance and create the more consistent pressure. The main expectation is therefore an away victory, with the visitors holding the stronger position in what could still be a competitive encounter.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Match fact

Match hosted at Tallaght Stadium

Bohemians face FC Midtjylland in the first leg of the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round at Tallaght Stadium in Dublin, rather than their usual Dalymount Park home ground.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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