FC Lugano — NSI Runavik: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 95.9% |
| 12 | 92.5% | |
| X2 | 11.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 37.6% / 62.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.0% / 2.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.0% / 13.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.2% / 29.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.1% / 50.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.9% / 70.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.9% / 84.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Lugano enter this UEFA Conference League qualification match as the clearly stronger side, with high confidence behind the home outcome. The available assessment points toward a commanding performance from the hosts, who are expected to control the game and create the more dangerous attacking situations. Their advantage should be especially apparent if they establish pressure early and force NSI Runavik to defend for long periods.
NSI Runavik face a demanding task against an opponent assessed to have greater overall strength. The match is projected to have a high-scoring profile, but the defensive outlook still favours FC Lugano, with a clean sheet considered likely. That combination suggests a game in which the hosts can build a decisive lead while limiting the visitors’ opportunities. NSI Runavik will need an organised defensive structure and efficient transitions to remain competitive, whereas FC Lugano can focus on maintaining control and converting their territorial advantage.
What matters before kick-off
FC Lugano's strong start to the season
FC Lugano enters the first leg of the third qualifying round having won all four of their opening matches of the season, including a comeback victory over Grasshopper Club Zürich.
NSI Runavik's second-round comeback
NSÍ Runavík reached the third qualifying round by overturning a 2–0 first-leg defeat against Slovenian side FC Koper, winning 3–1 away after extra time and advancing 4–3 on penalties.
NSI Runavik's historic European run
Reaching the third qualifying round of the UEFA Conference League represents the best European campaign in the history of Faroese club NSÍ Runavík.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.