HNK Rijeka — Tampereen Ilves: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 92.2% |
| 12 | 83.1% | |
| X2 | 24.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 41.4% / 58.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.0% / 21.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.2% / 66.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.0% / 83.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.5% / 92.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
HNK Rijeka enter this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie with a clear advantage in the pre-match assessment. The hosts are viewed as clearly stronger than Tampereen Ilves, with a high confidence level behind that reading. That suggests HNK Rijeka should be able to control more of the match, particularly through sustained pressure and a generally more effective attacking approach.
The expected scoring pattern is medium-scoring rather than an open contest, while the assessment also points towards a likely clean sheet for HNK Rijeka. The most plausible scorelines indicate a controlled home victory, with a narrow win also remaining consistent with the overall picture. Tampereen Ilves may need to defend compactly and make the most of limited attacking opportunities, as the balance of the preview gives them little room for error. Overall, the matchup favours HNK Rijeka, although the hosts will still need to turn their advantage into a disciplined performance.
What matters before kick-off
HNK Rijeka's qualification progression
HNK Rijeka reached the third qualifying round of the UEFA Conference League by defeating Derry City 1-0 in their second-leg match, securing a 2-0 aggregate victory.
Tampereen Ilves qualification result
Tampereen Ilves advanced to the third qualifying round of the Conference League after beating Icelandic club Stjarnan 2-1 in the second leg and winning 5-4 on penalties.
HNK Rijeka head coach pre-match statement
HNK Rijeka head coach Matjaž Kek emphasized that Tampereen Ilves is a well-structured team capable of disciplined defense and quick transitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.