Match intelligence

Valletta FC — RKS Rakow Czestochowa: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026

League: UEFA Conference League, Qualification · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Valletta FC0
:
4RKS Rakow Czestochowa
Locked signal W2 Probability 63.4% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 17.4% Home win Valletta FC
X 19.2% Draw
W2 63.4% Away win RKS Rakow Czestochowa
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
X282.6%
Both teams to score
Yes50.7%
Totals 2.5
Over55.4%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X36.6%
1280.8%
X282.6%
Both teams to scoreYes/No50.7% / 49.3%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 95.4% / 4.6%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 77.6% / 22.4%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 55.4% / 44.6%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 33.0% / 67.0%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 16.8% / 83.2%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 7.4% / 92.6%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Valletta FC × RKS Rakow Czestochowa
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 4.6%
0:1 11.8%
0:2 10.9%
0:3 7.2%
0:4 3.6%
0:5 1.4%
1
1:0 5.9%
1:1 9.1%
1:2 9.9%
1:3 6.6%
1:4 3.3%
1:5 1.3%
2
2:0 2.3%
2:1 4.5%
2:2 4.5%
2:3 3.0%
2:4 1.5%
2:5 0.6%
3
3:0 0.7%
3:1 1.4%
3:2 1.4%
3:3 0.9%
3:4 0.5%
3:5 0.2%
4
4:0 0.2%
4:1 0.3%
4:2 0.3%
4:3 0.2%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 0.0%
5:1 0.1%
5:2 0.1%
5:3 0.0%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
0:111.8%
0:210.9%
1:29.9%
1:19.1%
0:37.2%
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Valletta FC face RKS Rakow Czestochowa in a UEFA Conference League qualifying tie that gives the visitors a moderate but clear strength advantage. The assessment points toward an away win, although the level of confidence suggests that Valletta FC remain capable of making the contest competitive, particularly if they can keep the match balanced during its early stages.

The scoring outlook is relatively open, with a high-scoring game considered more likely than a tightly controlled encounter. However, the expectation that both teams will score is evenly balanced, so the match could develop in either direction depending on which side makes better use of its opportunities. The most plausible scorelines are 1-2, 0-2 and 0-1, indicating that RKS Rakow Czestochowa have the stronger position while Valletta FC may still have a route to an effective response. Overall, the visitors hold the clearer edge, but the moderate confidence leaves room for a closer match than the headline assessment suggests.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

First-leg result

Rakow Czestochowa defeated Valletta FC 3-1 in the first leg of their UEFA Conference League second qualifying round tie.

Match fact

Valletta's European return

Valletta FC returned to European competition this season after winning the Maltese FA Trophy last May.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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