Derry City FC — HNK Rijeka: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 41.8% |
| 12 | 77.2% | |
| X2 | 80.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.0% / 52.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.5% / 26.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.8% / 51.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.0% / 73.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.6% / 87.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.1% / 94.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Derry City FC host HNK Rijeka in a UEFA Conference League qualifying tie where the visitors hold a slight edge, although the low confidence level points to a contest with considerable uncertainty. Rijeka appear marginally better placed in the overall assessment, but the gap is not large enough to make this a straightforward matchup. Derry City FC should remain competitive, particularly if they can keep the game controlled and prevent Rijeka from establishing a clear attacking rhythm.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, suggesting that the match could develop beyond a tightly defensive encounter without necessarily becoming open from the start. Whether both teams score is finely balanced, so neither side has a clear advantage in that specific area. Rijeka may have the stronger route to victory, but a draw or a narrow home response remains plausible. The main expectation is therefore a close game in which small moments, especially in the attacking third, could decide the outcome.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.