Derry City FC — HNK Rijeka: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 43.0% |
| 12 | 76.3% | |
| X2 | 80.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.7% / 53.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.9% / 28.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.6% / 53.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.1% / 74.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.4% / 88.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Derry City FC host HNK Rijeka in a UEFA Conference League qualifying tie where the visitors hold a slight edge, although the low confidence level points to a contest with considerable uncertainty. Rijeka appear marginally better placed in the overall assessment, but the gap is not large enough to make this a straightforward matchup. Derry City FC should remain competitive, particularly if they can keep the game controlled and prevent Rijeka from establishing a clear attacking rhythm.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, suggesting that the match could develop beyond a tightly defensive encounter without necessarily becoming open from the start. Whether both teams score is finely balanced, so neither side has a clear advantage in that specific area. Rijeka may have the stronger route to victory, but a draw or a narrow home response remains plausible. The main expectation is therefore a close game in which small moments, especially in the attacking third, could decide the outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Rijeka hold one-goal advantage from first leg
HNK Rijeka secured a 1-0 victory over Derry City in the first leg of their UEFA Conference League second qualifying round tie on July 23, 2026, thanks to a second-half goal from Toni Fruk.
Derry City dropped into Conference League following Europa League exit
Derry City entered the UEFA Conference League qualifiers after losing 5-3 on aggregate to CSKA Sofia in the UEFA Europa League first qualifying round.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.