Beitar Jerusalem FC — AEK Larnaca: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.3% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 54.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.8% / 48.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.9% / 27.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.3% / 51.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.5% / 73.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.9% / 95.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X2 | was 2.90 → now 3.00 |
Match preview
Beitar Jerusalem FC hold a slight edge over AEK Larnaca in this UEFA Conference League qualification tie, although the moderate confidence level points to a closely balanced contest. The home side may benefit from playing in familiar surroundings, but AEK Larnaca remain capable of making the match competitive and limiting Beitar’s control.
The scoring outlook is medium, with the available scenarios suggesting a match that could remain tight rather than develop into an open contest. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so neither side has a clear advantage in that respect. A draw such as 1-1 is a credible possibility, while narrow Beitar Jerusalem FC victories by 1-0 or 2-1 also fit the overall assessment. The 1X signal reflects protection for the home side, but the visitors should not be discounted.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.