Beitar Jerusalem FC — AEK Larnaca: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.8% |
| 12 | 75.0% | |
| X2 | 52.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.3% / 50.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.0% / 29.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.0% / 54.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.6% / 75.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.1% / 88.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.3% / 95.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Beitar Jerusalem FC hold a slight edge over AEK Larnaca in this UEFA Conference League qualification tie, although the moderate confidence level points to a closely balanced contest. The home side may benefit from playing in familiar surroundings, but AEK Larnaca remain capable of making the match competitive and limiting Beitar’s control.
The scoring outlook is medium, with the available scenarios suggesting a match that could remain tight rather than develop into an open contest. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so neither side has a clear advantage in that respect. A draw such as 1-1 is a credible possibility, while narrow Beitar Jerusalem FC victories by 1-0 or 2-1 also fit the overall assessment. The 1X signal reflects protection for the home side, but the visitors should not be discounted.
What matters before kick-off
Beitar Jerusalem lead 1-0 after first leg
Beitar Jerusalem secured a 1-0 away victory in the first leg of the UEFA Conference League second qualifying round thanks to a 77th-minute free-kick goal by Brayan Carabali.
Red card suspension for AEK Larnaca's Van der Hoorn
AEK Larnaca defender Mike Van der Hoorn received a straight red card in the first leg for pulling down Timothy Muzie, leaving him suspended for the return match.
Beitar Jerusalem hosting match in Romania
Beitar Jerusalem are playing their designated home leg against AEK Larnaca at the Ilie Oană Stadium in Ploiești, Romania.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.