The New Saints FC — Tallinna FC Flora: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.5% |
| 12 | 77.0% | |
| X2 | 49.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.2% / 44.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.0% / 23.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.8% / 84.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
The New Saints FC have a slight edge over Tallinna FC Flora in this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie. The available assessment points towards a competitive match in which the hosts may have the stronger overall position, but the difference between the teams is not expected to be decisive. Home advantage supports The New Saints FC, while Tallinna FC Flora remain capable of keeping the contest close.
The scoring outlook is moderate rather than open, suggesting a match shaped by periods of caution and limited separation. There is no clear indication that both teams will score, so that aspect remains finely balanced. The most plausible scenarios point towards a narrow home success or a draw, with the match likely to stay competitive until the closing stages. Overall, The New Saints FC hold the more favourable position, while Tallinna FC Flora have a realistic chance of taking something from the game.
What matters before kick-off
First-leg result
In the first leg of the UEFA Conference League second qualifying round on July 23, 2026, FC Flora secured a 1-0 home victory against The New Saints.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.