US Lecce — Juventus Turin: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 37.4% |
| 12 | 77.3% | |
| X2 | 85.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.9% / 47.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.6% / 6.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.3% / 19.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.4% / 43.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.0% / 66.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.5% / 82.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.8% / 92.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
US Lecce
12th place · 9 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away Udinese 3:0
- 11.10.2026 home Bologna 1:2
- 20.09.2026 away Milan 0:3
- 13.09.2026 home Monza 3:2
- 07.09.2026 away Cagliari 0:1
Juventus Turin
10th place · 11 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 home Lazio 0:3
- 11.10.2026 away Cagliari 1:1
- 20.09.2026 home Atalanta 2:0
- 13.09.2026 away Sassuolo 2:3
- 06.09.2026 home Milan 1:1
This season: US Lecce at home vs Juventus Turin away
| Metric | US Lecce · at home | Juventus Turin · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–2 | 1–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.67 | 1.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.12 | 1.74 |
| xG against per match | 2.57 | 0.65 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.67 | 7.67 |
| Corners per match | 5.33 | 10.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 09.05.2026 US Lecce 0:1 Juventus Turin
- 03.01.2026 Juventus Turin 1:1 US Lecce
- 12.04.2025 Juventus Turin 2:1 US Lecce
- 01.12.2024 US Lecce 1:1 Juventus Turin
- 21.01.2024 US Lecce 0:3 Juventus Turin
- 26.09.2023 Juventus Turin 1:0 US Lecce
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 7.00 → now 6.00 |
| X | was 4.20 → now 4.00 |
| W2 | was 1.48 → now 1.55 |
Match preview
US Lecce face a difficult test against Juventus Turin in Serie A, with the visitors holding a clear overall advantage. US Lecce have won two and lost three of their last five matches, scoring seven goals but conceding eight. Their home record is a particular concern: they have suffered two defeats in three home games, allowing eight goals while scoring four. This defensive vulnerability could be decisive against an opponent that has shown a stronger ability to create chances away from home.
Juventus Turin have also experienced an inconsistent run, recording one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five matches. However, their broader league position is stronger, with 11 points placing them eighth compared with US Lecce in twelfth on nine points. Juventus Turin have collected four points from three away matches, scoring four goals and conceding four, suggesting a more balanced approach on the road. The recent head-to-head record further supports the visitors, who have won four of the last six meetings, including a 1-0 victory in the most recent encounter in 2026.
Overall, Juventus Turin have the stronger profile, particularly in chance creation and defensive balance away from home. A controlled, medium-scoring contest appears plausible, although US Lecce may still find opportunities to threaten.
What matters before kick-off
Injury crisis at Juventus
Juventus head coach Luciano Spalletti named a 20-man squad for the match due to extensive absences. Zeki Celik and Nico Gonzalez suffered injuries during their Europa League match, joining Kenan Yildiz, Khephren Thuram, and Manuel Locatelli on the sidelines.
Busy schedule for Juventus
Juventus head into the Serie A fixture after drawing 2-2 with Rennes in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday. Prior to that, the Turin side suffered a 3-0 home defeat against Lazio in domestic play.
Lecce's convincing victory over Udinese
In their previous Serie A match, Lecce achieved a impressive 3-0 away win against Udinese with goals from Kialonda Gaspar, Konan N'Dri, and Jamil Siebert.
Head-to-head record
Since the 2004-05 campaign, Lecce have won just one of their 20 top-flight meetings with Juventus, with that single victory coming back in February 2011.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.