Genoa CFC — Venezia FC: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.4% |
| 12 | 72.4% | |
| X2 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.3% / 44.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.1% / 7.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.5% / 23.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.8% / 71.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.7% / 94.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
Genoa CFC
17th place · 4 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Roma 0:2
- 10.10.2026 home Fiorentina 2:1
- 20.09.2026 away Parma 1:2
- 12.09.2026 home Frosinone 1:1
- 04.09.2026 home Como 1:4
Venezia FC
20th place · 3 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 home Napoli 1:0
- 12.10.2026 away Atalanta 1:3
- 19.09.2026 home Lazio 0:2
- 11.09.2026 home Fiorentina 2:4
- 06.09.2026 away Frosinone 2:3
This season: Genoa CFC at home vs Venezia FC away
| Metric | Genoa CFC · at home | Venezia FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–2 | 0–0–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.20 | 1.87 |
| xG against per match | 1.33 | 2.06 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.25 | 3.33 |
| Corners per match | 5.25 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.02.2025 Genoa CFC 2:0 Venezia FC
- 21.09.2024 Venezia FC 2:0 Genoa CFC
- 16.01.2023 Genoa CFC 1:0 Venezia FC
- 14.08.2022 Venezia FC 1:2 Genoa CFC
- 20.02.2022 Venezia FC 1:1 Genoa CFC
- 31.10.2021 Genoa CFC 0:0 Venezia FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Genoa CFC enter this Serie A fixture with a slight edge over Venezia FC, primarily because of their home advantage and the visitors’ difficult away record. However, neither side has shown consistent form. Genoa CFC have recorded one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five matches, scoring five goals and conceding ten. They sit 17th with four points from seven games, while their home record stands at one win, one draw and two losses. Their defensive vulnerability remains a concern, particularly given the number of goals conceded in recent matches.
Venezia FC arrive in an even more precarious position, sitting 20th with three points from seven games. They have lost four of their last five matches and have yet to earn a point away from home this season, losing all three away fixtures while conceding eight goals. Their recent scoring output suggests they can still threaten, but their defensive record makes this a challenging trip. The historical record also favours Genoa CFC, who have won three of the six previous meetings, including a 2-0 victory in the last encounter in 2025.
Overall, Genoa CFC hold a narrow advantage, but their own defensive issues make a straightforward home victory far from certain. A moderately scoring contest appears plausible, with a draw remaining a credible alternative.
What matters before kick-off
Busy schedule for Genoa
The match against Venezia starts a busy Serie A week for Genoa, who are set to host Juventus just three days later on October 28, 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.