Lazio Rome — Parma Calcio: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.5% |
| 12 | 80.1% | |
| X2 | 31.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.2% / 54.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.6% / 6.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.2% / 22.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.0% / 47.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
Lazio Rome
2nd place · 19 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away Juventus 3:0
- 11.10.2026 home Monza 3:1
- 19.09.2026 away Venezia 2:0
- 12.09.2026 home Milan 2:2
- 07.09.2026 away Udinese 2:1
Parma Calcio
19th place · 4 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.10.2026 home Torino 0:3
- 10.10.2026 away Inter 0:3
- 20.09.2026 home Genoa 2:1
- 14.09.2026 away Como 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Monza 1:1
This season: Lazio Rome at home vs Parma Calcio away
| Metric | Lazio Rome · at home | Parma Calcio · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–0 | 0–0–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.80 | 0.63 |
| xG against per match | 1.20 | 2.45 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 04.04.2026 Lazio Rome 1:1 Parma Calcio
- 13.12.2025 Parma Calcio 0:1 Lazio Rome
- 28.04.2025 Lazio Rome 2:2 Parma Calcio
- 01.12.2024 Parma Calcio 3:1 Lazio Rome
- 12.05.2021 Lazio Rome 1:0 Parma Calcio
- 10.01.2021 Parma Calcio 0:2 Lazio Rome
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Lazio Rome enter this Serie A meeting as the clearly stronger side, with their recent form providing a solid foundation for confidence. They have won four and drawn one of their last five matches, scoring 12 goals and conceding only four. Their position near the top of the table, with 19 points from seven games, reinforces the impression of a team performing consistently well. At home, Lazio Rome remain unbeaten this season, recording two wins and one draw in three matches. Their ability to create considerably more chances than they allow is another important factor in this matchup.
Parma Calcio face a more difficult challenge after losing three of their last five matches, with just one win in that sequence. They have conceded 10 goals while scoring four, highlighting their recent defensive problems. Their away record is particularly concerning: three defeats from three matches, with seven goals conceded and only one scored. Parma Calcio have also struggled to create enough chances on the road while allowing opponents to threaten more frequently.
Overall, Lazio Rome have a clear advantage in form, home performance and chance creation. The hosts should be better positioned to control the match, although their previous meeting ended in a 1-1 draw. A moderately confident home-favouring assessment is appropriate, with a medium-scoring contest the most reasonable expectation.
What matters before kick-off
Lazio's record start under Gattuso
Lazio defeated Juventus 3-0 in their previous match, reaching 19 points from their opening seven Serie A fixtures (six wins, one draw). This represents the best top-flight start in the club's history.
Lazio team news ahead of Parma clash
Lazio winger Matteo Cancellieri has fully recovered from injury and is ready for the Parma game. Meanwhile, Nicolo Rovella and Adam Marusic remain sidelined as they continue recovering from muscle injuries.
Parma's difficult stretch under Gilardino
Alberto Gilardino took charge of Parma during the October international break, replacing Carlos Cuesta. Parma have suffered consecutive 3-0 defeats in their last two matches against Inter Milan and Torino.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.