Inter Milano — ACF Fiorentina: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.9% |
| 12 | 83.5% | |
| X2 | 28.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.9% / 41.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.0% / 3.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.7% / 12.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.8% / 30.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.5% / 70.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.7% / 84.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
Inter Milano
2nd place · 19 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Bologna 3:1
- 10.10.2026 home Parma 3:0
- 19.09.2026 away Roma 2:2
- 14.09.2026 home Udinese 5:3
- 05.09.2026 home Napoli 3:2
ACF Fiorentina
18th place · 4 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 home Como 1:3
- 10.10.2026 away Genoa 1:2
- 20.09.2026 home Napoli 1:1
- 11.09.2026 away Venezia 4:2
- 05.09.2026 home Torino 1:2
This season: Inter Milano at home vs ACF Fiorentina away
| Metric | Inter Milano · at home | ACF Fiorentina · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 4–0–0 | 1–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.75 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 2.67 |
| xG for per match | 2.61 | 1.47 |
| xG against per match | 1.26 | 1.59 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.75 | 5.67 |
| Corners per match | 6.50 | 3.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.03.2026 ACF Fiorentina 1:1 Inter Milano
- 29.10.2025 Inter Milano 3:0 ACF Fiorentina
- 10.02.2025 Inter Milano 2:1 ACF Fiorentina
- 06.02.2025 ACF Fiorentina 3:0 Inter Milano
- 28.01.2024 ACF Fiorentina 0:1 Inter Milano
- 03.09.2023 Inter Milano 4:0 ACF Fiorentina
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 5.50 → now 5.25 |
| W2 | was 8.00 → now 7.00 |
Match preview
Inter Milano enter this Serie A fixture as the clearly stronger side, supported by an excellent start to the season and consistent recent form. They sit top of the table with 19 points from seven matches, having won four and drawn one of their last five games. Their home record is particularly convincing: four wins from four matches, with 15 goals scored. Inter Milano have also shown an ability to create significantly more chances than they allow, giving them a strong foundation for controlling the contest against ACF Fiorentina.
ACF Fiorentina arrive under considerably more pressure, with only four points from seven league matches and a position near the bottom of the table. Their recent sequence includes three defeats in five games, while they have conceded 10 goals across that period. Away from home, their record is mixed, with one win and two losses in three matches. Their tendency to allow chances at a similar rate to those they create could prove problematic against an opponent as productive as Inter Milano.
The overall balance favours the hosts, whose home scoring record and stronger recent results point towards a game in which they can generate sustained attacking pressure. ACF Fiorentina may still find opportunities, but Inter Milano have the clearer advantages. A high-scoring contest is plausible, with the hosts best placed to take control.
What matters before kick-off
Inter Squad Availability
Inter faces selection constraints against Fiorentina, with captain Lautaro Martínez and defender Benjamin Pavard ruled out due to injuries, alongside Luis Henrique, John Stones, and Curtis Jones.
Fiorentina Squad Absences
Fiorentina traveled to Milan without Fabiano Parisi, Arthur Atta, and Luca Ranieri due to injuries.
Inter European Midweek Result
Ahead of the Serie A clash, Inter earned a 1-0 win over Shakhtar Donetsk in midweek Champions League action despite being reduced to ten men.
League Table Context
Heading into matchday eight of Serie A, Inter sits atop the table with 19 points from seven games, while Fiorentina resides in the relegation zone with four points.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.