Atalanta BC — Frosinone Calcio: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.6% |
| 12 | 78.3% | |
| X2 | 48.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 72.2% / 27.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.1% / 2.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.5% / 9.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.0% / 26.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 53.8% / 46.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.3% / 65.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.3% / 80.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
Atalanta BC
11th place · 9 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away Milan 2:3
- 12.10.2026 home Venezia 3:1
- 20.09.2026 away Juventus 0:2
- 12.09.2026 home Cagliari 1:2
- 05.09.2026 away Roma 1:2
Frosinone Calcio
6th place · 13 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.10.2026 home Sassuolo 4:2
- 10.10.2026 away Napoli 0:3
- 20.09.2026 home Como 2:0
- 12.09.2026 away Genoa 1:1
- 06.09.2026 home Venezia 3:2
This season: Atalanta BC at home vs Frosinone Calcio away
| Metric | Atalanta BC · at home | Frosinone Calcio · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–1 | 1–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.75 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.11 | 1.34 |
| xG against per match | 2.00 | 2.30 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 15.01.2024 Atalanta BC 5:0 Frosinone Calcio
- 26.08.2023 Frosinone Calcio 2:1 Atalanta BC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 3.80 → now 3.50 |
Match preview
Atalanta BC enter this Serie A meeting with a slight home advantage, although their recent form raises questions about their consistency. They have lost four of their last five matches, scoring 7 goals and conceding 10, and sit 11th with 9 points from 7 games. Their home record offers a more encouraging picture: three wins from four matches, with 7 goals scored and 4 conceded. However, Atalanta BC have allowed clearly more chances than they create at home, suggesting that defensive vulnerabilities could remain a significant factor.
Frosinone Calcio arrive in better overall form, having won three of their last five matches, with 10 goals scored and 8 conceded. They occupy sixth place with 13 points, giving them a stronger league position than their hosts. Their away record is balanced, with one win, one draw and one defeat from three matches, while both scoring and conceding 4 goals. Like Atalanta BC, Frosinone Calcio have struggled to limit opponents' chances away from home, which could contribute to an open contest.
The combination of Atalanta BC's home strength and Frosinone Calcio's superior recent form points towards a competitive match with goals at both ends. The hosts hold a slight edge, but their defensive issues make a comfortable victory difficult to anticipate.
What matters before kick-off
Recent team results
Atalanta enter the match following consecutive defeats, losing 3-2 to AC Milan in Serie A and 2-0 against Ajax in the UEFA Conference League. Frosinone head into the fixture after securing a 4-2 victory over Sassuolo in their previous league match.
Atalanta defensive availability issues
Atalanta head coach Maurizio Sarri faces severe defensive selection issues due to the absence of multiple central defenders, including Sead Kolasinac and Isak Hien.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.