SSC Napoli — AS Roma: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.5% |
| 12 | 71.6% | |
| X2 | 64.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.6% / 39.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.7% / 7.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.6% / 19.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.7% / 44.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.3% / 66.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.0% / 83.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.5% / 92.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
SSC Napoli
10th place · 10 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Venezia 0:1
- 10.10.2026 home Frosinone 3:0
- 20.09.2026 away Fiorentina 1:1
- 13.09.2026 home Bologna 1:0
- 05.09.2026 away Inter 2:3
AS Roma
3rd place · 17 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 home Genoa 2:0
- 11.10.2026 away Como 0:0
- 19.09.2026 home Inter 2:2
- 14.09.2026 away Torino 2:0
- 05.09.2026 home Atalanta 2:1
This season: SSC Napoli at home vs AS Roma away
| Metric | SSC Napoli · at home | AS Roma · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–1 | 2–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.89 | 2.08 |
| xG against per match | 0.78 | 1.01 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 15.02.2026 SSC Napoli 2:2 AS Roma
- 30.11.2025 AS Roma 0:1 SSC Napoli
- 02.02.2025 AS Roma 1:1 SSC Napoli
- 24.11.2024 SSC Napoli 1:0 AS Roma
- 28.04.2024 SSC Napoli 2:2 AS Roma
- 23.12.2023 AS Roma 2:0 SSC Napoli
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.80 → now 2.70 |
| X | was 3.10 → now 3.30 |
| W2 | was 2.70 → now 2.60 |
Match preview
SSC Napoli come into this meeting with a mixed recent record, having won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last five matches. Their home form is more encouraging, with 2 wins from 3 games and a 5-2 goal record. They have also been creating clearly more chances than they allow at home, which should make the venue a meaningful factor.
AS Roma arrive in stronger overall form, unbeaten in their last five with 3 wins and 2 draws. They sit third in Serie A with 17 points from seven matches, while SSC Napoli are 10th with 10 points. Away from home, AS Roma have won 2 of 3 and conceded no goals, while also creating clearly more chances than they allow. That defensive record gives the visitors a solid foundation, although SSC Napoli's home performances keep the contest balanced.
The overall read is of an evenly matched game with moderate confidence, and a medium-scoring pattern is plausible. The recent head-to-head record also points toward a competitive matchup: the last meeting finished SSC Napoli 2-2 AS Roma, while three of the last six meetings saw both teams score.
What matters before kick-off
Midweek European fixtures
SSC Napoli enter the match following a 4-3 victory over Bodø/Glimt in the UEFA Champions League, while AS Roma earned a 4-0 win against Slovan Bratislava in midweek European action.
Donyell Malen returns for Roma
AS Roma forward Donyell Malen is available to face SSC Napoli after serving his one-match Serie A suspension.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.