Torino FC — AC Monza: Win probabilities, 23.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.0% |
| 12 | 73.0% | |
| X2 | 54.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.3% / 40.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.3% / 19.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.8% / 44.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.4% / 66.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.10.2026
Torino FC
10th place · 10 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.10.2026 away Parma 3:0
- 12.10.2026 home Udinese 2:1
- 19.09.2026 away Bologna 1:1
- 14.09.2026 home Roma 0:2
- 05.09.2026 away Fiorentina 2:1
AC Monza
14th place · 7 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.10.2026 home Cagliari 4:0
- 11.10.2026 away Lazio 1:3
- 18.09.2026 home Sassuolo 2:1
- 13.09.2026 away Lecce 2:3
- 06.09.2026 away Parma 1:1
This season: Torino FC at home vs AC Monza away
| Metric | Torino FC · at home | AC Monza · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–2 | 0–1–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 2.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.53 | 1.80 |
| xG against per match | 1.59 | 1.17 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.67 | 6.25 |
| Corners per match | 2.33 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.03.2025 AC Monza 0:2 Torino FC
- 24.11.2024 Torino FC 1:1 AC Monza
- 30.03.2024 Torino FC 1:0 AC Monza
- 11.11.2023 AC Monza 1:1 Torino FC
- 07.05.2023 Torino FC 1:1 AC Monza
- 13.08.2022 AC Monza 1:2 Torino FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 3.30 → now 3.50 |
Match preview
Torino FC have a slight edge heading into their Serie A meeting with AC Monza, supported by stronger recent results and a better league position. Torino FC have won three of their last five matches, drawing one and losing one, while scoring 8 goals and conceding 5. They sit 10th with 10 points from seven games, compared with AC Monza in 14th place on 7 points. However, Torino FC’s home form offers less reassurance, with just one win in three matches at their own ground and five goals conceded. Their overall advantage is therefore meaningful but not overwhelming.
AC Monza arrive with a more inconsistent recent record, having won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five matches. They have scored 10 goals in that sequence, suggesting they can contribute offensively, but their away record is a concern: they have yet to win in four away games, losing three and conceding 11 goals. Torino FC also have the stronger historical record in this fixture, winning three of six meetings, with the other three ending in draws. Their most recent encounter finished 2-0 to Torino FC in 2025.
A moderately open contest looks plausible, with Torino FC better placed to take the initiative but AC Monza capable of creating difficulties. The hosts have the clearer overall case, although a draw remains a realistic outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Monza squad selection
Monza coach Ivan Juric named a 26-man squad for the Serie A match against Torino, including Patrick Ciurria, Omari Forson, and Patrick Cutrone.
Recent cup encounter
Earlier this season, Monza earned a 1-0 win against Torino in their Coppa Italia second-round fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.