US Lecce — Genoa CFC: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
35.6%
Home win
US Lecce
X
29.8%
Draw
W2
34.6%
Away win
Genoa CFC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1270.2%
Both teams to score
Yes50.7%
Totals 2.5
Under56.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.4% |
| 12 | 70.2% | |
| X2 | 64.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.0% / 10.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.1% / 28.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 43.9% / 56.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 22.8% / 77.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.0% / 90.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.8% / 96.2% |
Goal distribution model
US Lecce × Genoa CFC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
10.0%
0:1
9.4%
0:2
6.4%
0:3
2.6%
0:4
0.8%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
9.6%
1:1
14.2%
1:2
7.8%
1:3
3.1%
1:4
0.9%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
6.6%
2:1
8.0%
2:2
4.8%
2:3
1.9%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
2.7%
3:1
3.3%
3:2
2.0%
3:3
0.8%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
0.8%
4:1
1.0%
4:2
0.6%
4:3
0.2%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:114.2%
0:010.0%
1:09.6%
0:19.4%
2:18.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
US Lecce
12th place · 9 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Juventus 0:2
- 18.10.2026 away Udinese 3:0
- 11.10.2026 home Bologna 1:2
- 20.09.2026 away Milan 0:3
- 13.09.2026 home Monza 3:2
Genoa CFC
16th place · 7 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Venezia 1:0
- 17.10.2026 away Roma 0:2
- 10.10.2026 home Fiorentina 2:1
- 20.09.2026 away Parma 1:2
- 12.09.2026 home Frosinone 1:1
This season: US Lecce at home vs Genoa CFC away
| Metric | US Lecce · at home | Genoa CFC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–3 | 0–0–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.50 | 1.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.06 | 0.58 |
| xG against per match | 2.19 | 1.14 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.75 | 2.33 |
| Corners per match | 5.25 | 3.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
US Lecce wins2
Draws2
Genoa CFC wins2
Goals per match1.33
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 24.05.2026 US Lecce 1:0 Genoa CFC
- 23.08.2025 Genoa CFC 0:0 US Lecce
- 14.03.2025 Genoa CFC 2:1 US Lecce
- 05.01.2025 US Lecce 0:0 Genoa CFC
- 28.01.2024 Genoa CFC 2:1 US Lecce
- 22.09.2023 US Lecce 1:0 Genoa CFC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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