Lazio Rome — Cagliari Calcio: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
61.3%
Home win
Lazio Rome
X
22.9%
Draw
W2
15.8%
Away win
Cagliari Calcio
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X84.2%
Both teams to score
No52.3%
Totals 2.5
Over50.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.2% |
| 12 | 77.1% | |
| X2 | 38.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.7% / 7.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.1% / 24.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.1% / 49.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.1% / 71.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.4% / 86.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Goal distribution model
Lazio Rome × Cagliari Calcio
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.3%
0:1
5.3%
0:2
2.3%
0:3
0.6%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
12.4%
1:1
10.9%
1:2
4.3%
1:3
1.2%
1:4
0.2%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
11.8%
2:1
9.7%
2:2
4.0%
2:3
1.1%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
7.3%
3:1
6.0%
3:2
2.5%
3:3
0.7%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
3.4%
4:1
2.8%
4:2
1.1%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.3%
5:1
1.0%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:012.4%
2:011.8%
1:110.9%
2:19.7%
3:07.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
Lazio Rome
1st place · 25 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.10.2026 away Sassuolo 6:2
- 24.10.2026 home Parma 2:1
- 18.10.2026 away Juventus 3:0
- 11.10.2026 home Monza 3:1
- 19.09.2026 away Venezia 2:0
Cagliari Calcio
9th place · 13 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.10.2026 away Roma 2:4
- 24.10.2026 home Bologna 0:2
- 19.10.2026 away Monza 0:4
- 11.10.2026 home Juventus 1:1
- 19.09.2026 away Udinese 1:0
This season: Lazio Rome at home vs Cagliari Calcio away
| Metric | Lazio Rome · at home | Cagliari Calcio · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 3–1–0 | 3–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| xG for per match | 1.79 | 1.44 |
| xG against per match | 1.10 | 1.56 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 4.25 |
| Corners per match | 5.25 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 40% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Lazio Rome wins5
Draws1
Cagliari Calcio wins0
Goals per match2.17
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 21.02.2026 Cagliari Calcio 0:0 Lazio Rome
- 03.11.2025 Lazio Rome 2:0 Cagliari Calcio
- 03.02.2025 Cagliari Calcio 1:2 Lazio Rome
- 04.11.2024 Lazio Rome 2:1 Cagliari Calcio
- 10.02.2024 Cagliari Calcio 1:3 Lazio Rome
- 02.12.2023 Lazio Rome 1:0 Cagliari Calcio
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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