AC Milan — Inter Milano: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
29.0%
Home win
AC Milan
X
25.6%
Draw
W2
45.4%
Away win
Inter Milano
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1274.4%
Both teams to score
Yes63.1%
Totals 2.5
Over60.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 54.6% |
| 12 | 74.4% | |
| X2 | 71.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.1% / 36.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.2% / 16.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.7% / 39.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.3% / 61.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.8% / 79.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.8% / 90.2% |
Goal distribution model
AC Milan × Inter Milano
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.5%
0:1
6.5%
0:2
6.7%
0:3
3.9%
0:4
1.7%
0:5
0.6%
1
1:0
4.8%
1:1
11.7%
1:2
9.3%
1:3
5.4%
1:4
2.4%
1:5
0.8%
2
2:0
4.1%
2:1
7.2%
2:2
6.4%
2:3
3.7%
2:4
1.6%
2:5
0.6%
3
3:0
1.9%
3:1
3.3%
3:2
2.9%
3:3
1.7%
3:4
0.8%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
0.7%
4:1
1.1%
4:2
1.0%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.7%
1:29.3%
2:17.2%
0:26.7%
0:16.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
AC Milan
5th place · 18 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Udinese 2:0
- 18.10.2026 home Atalanta 3:2
- 11.10.2026 away Sassuolo 1:1
- 20.09.2026 home Lecce 3:0
- 12.09.2026 away Lazio 2:2
Inter Milano
2nd place · 22 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Fiorentina 2:1
- 17.10.2026 away Bologna 3:1
- 10.10.2026 home Parma 3:0
- 19.09.2026 away Roma 2:2
- 14.09.2026 home Udinese 5:3
This season: AC Milan at home vs Inter Milano away
| Metric | AC Milan · at home | Inter Milano · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–0 | 2–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.33 | 3.15 |
| xG against per match | 0.92 | 1.05 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 6.67 |
| Corners per match | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
AC Milan wins2
Draws1
Inter Milano wins3
Goals per match2.67
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 08.03.2026 AC Milan 1:0 Inter Milano
- 23.11.2025 Inter Milano 0:1 AC Milan
- 02.02.2025 AC Milan 1:1 Inter Milano
- 22.09.2024 Inter Milano 1:2 AC Milan
- 22.04.2024 AC Milan 1:2 Inter Milano
- 16.09.2023 Inter Milano 5:1 AC Milan
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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