Bologna FC — AC Monza: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
54.9%
Home win
Bologna FC
X
26.2%
Draw
W2
18.9%
Away win
AC Monza
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X81.1%
Both teams to score
Yes55.0%
Totals 2.5
Over54.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.1% |
| 12 | 73.8% | |
| X2 | 45.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.0% / 45.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.2% / 20.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.8% / 84.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Goal distribution model
Bologna FC × AC Monza
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.5%
0:1
4.2%
0:2
3.0%
0:3
1.0%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
9.0%
1:1
12.5%
1:2
5.4%
1:3
1.8%
1:4
0.5%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.8%
2:1
9.9%
2:2
5.0%
2:3
1.7%
2:4
0.4%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
6.0%
3:1
6.0%
3:2
3.0%
3:3
1.0%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
2.7%
4:1
2.8%
4:2
1.4%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.0%
5:1
1.0%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.5%
2:19.9%
2:09.8%
1:09.0%
0:07.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Bologna FC
13th place · 8 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Cagliari 2:0
- 17.10.2026 home Inter 1:3
- 11.10.2026 away Lecce 2:1
- 19.09.2026 home Torino 1:1
- 13.09.2026 away Napoli 0:1
AC Monza
15th place · 7 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.10.2026 away Torino 2:3
- 19.10.2026 home Cagliari 4:0
- 11.10.2026 away Lazio 1:3
- 18.09.2026 home Sassuolo 2:1
- 13.09.2026 away Lecce 2:3
This season: Bologna FC at home vs AC Monza away
| Metric | Bologna FC · at home | AC Monza · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–2 | 0–1–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.75 | 2.80 |
| xG for per match | 1.40 | 1.55 |
| xG against per match | 1.64 | 1.18 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.75 | 5.60 |
| Corners per match | 5.25 | 4.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Bologna FC wins3
Draws2
AC Monza wins1
Goals per match1.83
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 18.01.2025 Bologna FC 3:1 AC Monza
- 22.09.2024 AC Monza 1:2 Bologna FC
- 13.04.2024 Bologna FC 0:0 AC Monza
- 28.09.2023 AC Monza 0:0 Bologna FC
- 12.02.2023 Bologna FC 0:1 AC Monza
- 31.10.2022 AC Monza 1:2 Bologna FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 3.70 → now 3.50 |
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