US Lecce — Bologna FC: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 51.9% |
| 12 | 71.2% | |
| X2 | 76.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.8% / 48.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.6% / 9.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.1% / 25.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.2% / 52.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.5% / 74.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
US Lecce
12th place · 6 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Milan 0:3
- 13.09.2026 home Monza 3:2
- 07.09.2026 away Cagliari 0:1
- 31.08.2026 home Roma 0:4
- 23.08.2026 away Venezia 2:0
Bologna FC
18th place · 2 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Torino 1:1
- 13.09.2026 away Napoli 0:1
- 06.09.2026 home Sassuolo 2:2
- 31.08.2026 away Atalanta 0:1
- 24.08.2026 home Lazio 0:1
This season: US Lecce at home vs Bologna FC away
| Metric | US Lecce · at home | Bologna FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.94 | 0.83 |
| xG against per match | 2.87 | 0.68 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.04.2026 Bologna FC 2:0 US Lecce
- 28.09.2025 US Lecce 2:2 Bologna FC
- 09.02.2025 US Lecce 0:0 Bologna FC
- 02.11.2024 Bologna FC 1:0 US Lecce
- 11.02.2024 Bologna FC 4:0 US Lecce
- 03.12.2023 US Lecce 1:1 Bologna FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
US Lecce face Bologna FC in a Serie A meeting where the visitors hold a slight edge. The overall assessment gives Bologna FC the stronger position, with the X2 signal pointing toward either an away win or a draw. The confidence in this assessment is high, although it does not rule out a competitive match at US Lecce.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, suggesting a game with a moderate number of goals rather than an extreme attacking contest. The assessment of both teams scoring is balanced, making it difficult to establish a clear expectation on that specific point. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 0:1 and 0:2, reflecting a range from a draw to a controlled Bologna FC victory. Overall, the matchup leans toward Bologna FC, while US Lecce remain capable of keeping the contest close.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.