Lazio Rome — AC Monza: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.7% |
| 12 | 75.5% | |
| X2 | 43.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.6% / 42.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.8% / 6.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.6% / 18.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.6% / 64.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.7% / 81.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.5% / 91.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Lazio Rome
3rd place · 13 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Venezia 2:0
- 12.09.2026 home Milan 2:2
- 07.09.2026 away Udinese 2:1
- 30.08.2026 home Genoa 1:0
- 24.08.2026 away Bologna 1:0
AC Monza
16th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 home Sassuolo 2:1
- 13.09.2026 away Lecce 2:3
- 06.09.2026 away Parma 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home Udinese 2:3
- 22.08.2026 away Inter 1:4
This season: Lazio Rome at home vs AC Monza away
| Metric | Lazio Rome · at home | AC Monza · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 0–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.79 | 1.81 |
| xG against per match | 0.92 | 0.95 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 09.02.2025 Lazio Rome 5:1 AC Monza
- 10.11.2024 AC Monza 0:1 Lazio Rome
- 04.05.2024 AC Monza 2:2 Lazio Rome
- 23.09.2023 Lazio Rome 1:1 AC Monza
- 02.04.2023 AC Monza 0:2 Lazio Rome
- 10.11.2022 Lazio Rome 1:0 AC Monza
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
A fixture as the clearly stronger side, although the overall assessment carries a moderate level of confidence. Playing at home gives them a favorable platform, and the available indicators point toward a home victory as the more likely outcome. However, that advantage should be viewed as a meaningful edge rather than a decisive conclusion, with AC Monza still capable of making the contest competitive.
The scoring outlook suggests a match with a moderate number of goals rather than an especially high-scoring encounter. A controlled Lazio Rome performance, potentially built around defensive stability and efficient attacking play, would fit the general assessment. The possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced, so a clean sheet for the hosts and a response from AC Monza are both plausible scenarios. A narrow home win appears consistent with the overall outlook, while a draw remains a credible alternative. Ultimately, Lazio Rome have the stronger pre-match position, but the moderate confidence level leaves room for uncertainty in how the match develops.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.
