Match intelligence

Lazio Rome — AC Monza: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026

League: Serie A (Italy) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Lazio Rome3
:
1AC Monza
Locked signal Over Probability 56.5% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 55.8% Home win Lazio Rome
X 24.1% Draw
W2 20.1% Away win AC Monza
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X80.7%
Both teams to score
Yes57.6%
Totals 2.5
Over58.0%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X80.7%
1275.5%
X243.8%
Both teams to scoreYes/No57.6% / 42.4%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 93.8% / 6.2%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 81.6% / 18.4%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 58.0% / 42.0%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 35.6% / 64.4%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 18.7% / 81.3%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 8.5% / 91.5%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Lazio Rome × AC Monza
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 6.2%
0:1 4.0%
0:2 2.8%
0:3 1.0%
0:4 0.3%
0:5 0.1%
1
1:0 8.2%
1:1 11.5%
1:2 5.5%
1:3 2.0%
1:4 0.5%
1:5 0.1%
2
2:0 9.2%
2:1 9.9%
2:2 5.3%
2:3 1.9%
2:4 0.5%
2:5 0.1%
3
3:0 6.0%
3:1 6.4%
3:2 3.4%
3:3 1.2%
3:4 0.3%
3:5 0.1%
4
4:0 2.9%
4:1 3.1%
4:2 1.7%
4:3 0.6%
4:4 0.2%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 1.1%
5:1 1.2%
5:2 0.6%
5:3 0.2%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.5%
2:19.9%
2:09.2%
1:08.2%
3:16.4%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026

Lazio Rome

3rd place · 13 pts after 5

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 19.09.2026 away Venezia 2:0
  • 12.09.2026 home Milan 2:2
  • 07.09.2026 away Udinese 2:1
  • 30.08.2026 home Genoa 1:0
  • 24.08.2026 away Bologna 1:0

AC Monza

16th place · 4 pts after 5

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 18.09.2026 home Sassuolo 2:1
  • 13.09.2026 away Lecce 2:3
  • 06.09.2026 away Parma 1:1
  • 29.08.2026 home Udinese 2:3
  • 22.08.2026 away Inter 1:4

This season: Lazio Rome at home vs AC Monza away

Metric Lazio Rome · at home AC Monza · away
Matches23
W–D–L1–1–00–1–2
Goals scored per match1.501.33
Goals conceded per match1.002.67
xG for per match1.791.81
xG against per match0.920.95
Shots on target per match4.006.33
Corners per match3.004.00
Over 2.5 goals50%67%
Both teams scored50%100%

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Lazio Rome wins4
Draws2
AC Monza wins0
Goals per match2.67
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
  • 09.02.2025 Lazio Rome 5:1 AC Monza
  • 10.11.2024 AC Monza 0:1 Lazio Rome
  • 04.05.2024 AC Monza 2:2 Lazio Rome
  • 23.09.2023 Lazio Rome 1:1 AC Monza
  • 02.04.2023 AC Monza 0:2 Lazio Rome
  • 10.11.2022 Lazio Rome 1:0 AC Monza

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

A fixture as the clearly stronger side, although the overall assessment carries a moderate level of confidence. Playing at home gives them a favorable platform, and the available indicators point toward a home victory as the more likely outcome. However, that advantage should be viewed as a meaningful edge rather than a decisive conclusion, with AC Monza still capable of making the contest competitive.

The scoring outlook suggests a match with a moderate number of goals rather than an especially high-scoring encounter. A controlled Lazio Rome performance, potentially built around defensive stability and efficient attacking play, would fit the general assessment. The possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced, so a clean sheet for the hosts and a response from AC Monza are both plausible scenarios. A narrow home win appears consistent with the overall outlook, while a draw remains a credible alternative. Ultimately, Lazio Rome have the stronger pre-match position, but the moderate confidence level leaves room for uncertainty in how the match develops.

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