Inter Milano — Parma Calcio: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.9% |
| 12 | 88.3% | |
| X2 | 16.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.1% / 2.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.5% / 11.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.9% / 29.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.9% / 50.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.7% / 69.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.5% / 83.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Inter Milano
2nd place · 13 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Roma 2:2
- 14.09.2026 home Udinese 5:3
- 05.09.2026 home Napoli 3:2
- 30.08.2026 away Cagliari 1:0
- 22.08.2026 home Monza 4:1
Parma Calcio
15th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Genoa 2:1
- 14.09.2026 away Como 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Monza 1:1
- 29.08.2026 away Juventus 0:2
- 22.08.2026 home Cagliari 0:1
This season: Inter Milano at home vs Parma Calcio away
| Metric | Inter Milano · at home | Parma Calcio · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–0 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 4.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.67 | 0.72 |
| xG against per match | 1.52 | 2.47 |
| Shots on target per match | 8.33 | 3.50 |
| Corners per match | 7.67 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 03.05.2026 Inter Milano 2:0 Parma Calcio
- 07.01.2026 Parma Calcio 0:2 Inter Milano
- 05.04.2025 Parma Calcio 2:2 Inter Milano
- 06.12.2024 Inter Milano 3:1 Parma Calcio
- 04.03.2021 Parma Calcio 1:2 Inter Milano
- 31.10.2020 Inter Milano 2:2 Parma Calcio
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Inter Milano host Parma Calcio in Serie A sitting second in the table with 13 points from 5 matches, a run built on four wins and a draw in their last five outings. At home the hosts have been particularly convincing, taking maximum points from three matches and scoring 12 goals in the process, while consistently creating clearly more chances than they concede. The qualitative read on this fixture points to the hosts being clearly stronger, and the underlying form supports that view.
Parma Calcio arrive in a very different state. The visitors sit 15th with only 4 points from 5 games, have lost three of their last five, and on the road this season they have taken no points from two attempts, conceding four goals and scoring just one. Their chance quality away from home has also been poor, allowing clearly more opportunities than they generate.
The head-to-head reinforces the pattern: in six previous meetings Inter Milano have won four and drawn two, with Parma Calcio yet to register a victory. The most recent encounter finished 2-0 to the hosts. Taken together, the signals lean toward a controlled, high-scoring home performance, with a clean sheet looking plausible rather than assured.
What matters before kick-off
Curtis Jones to miss match due to injury
Inter midfielder Curtis Jones suffered a right thigh adductor muscle injury in training. He has been ruled out of the match against Parma and will miss several weeks.
Standings situation heading into matchday 6
Inter enter the match undefeated and co-leading Serie A with 13 points from 5 games. Parma sit 15th in the standings with 4 points.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.