Como 1907 — AS Roma: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.2% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 58.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.9% / 34.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.2% / 14.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.2% / 36.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.0% / 59.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.9% / 77.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.2% / 88.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Como 1907
8th place · 10 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Frosinone 0:2
- 14.09.2026 home Parma 2:1
- 04.09.2026 away Genoa 4:1
- 30.08.2026 away Napoli 2:1
- 22.08.2026 away Udinese 1:1
AS Roma
1st place · 13 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Inter 2:2
- 14.09.2026 away Torino 2:0
- 05.09.2026 home Atalanta 2:1
- 31.08.2026 away Lecce 4:0
- 24.08.2026 home Fiorentina 4:0
This season: Como 1907 at home vs AS Roma away
| Metric | Como 1907 · at home | AS Roma · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 2–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 3.24 | 2.59 |
| xG against per match | 1.22 | 0.84 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 6.50 |
| Corners per match | 11.00 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 15.03.2026 Como 1907 2:1 AS Roma
- 15.12.2025 AS Roma 1:0 Como 1907
- 02.03.2025 AS Roma 2:1 Como 1907
- 15.12.2024 Como 1907 2:0 AS Roma
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Como 1907 head into this Serie A fixture sitting eighth after five rounds, with ten points on the board and a recent run of three wins, one draw and a single defeat across their last five outings. They have been active at both ends, producing nine goals while conceding six in that stretch, which fits the profile of a side that neither shuts up shop nor runs away with games. The last meeting between these clubs ended Como 1907 2-1 AS Roma, so there is tangible precedent for the hosts to lean on.
AS Roma, by contrast, arrive as the current league leader, top of the table on thirteen points from five matches, having won four and drawn one of their last five. Their away form is particularly striking: two away games played this season, both won, with six scored and none conceded. On the balance of recent output, this is a visitor creating clearly more than it allows.
Still, the historical ledger is level, with four previous meetings split two apiece. Taking the qualitative read together with the facts, the teams look evenly matched with only a moderate lean, and the goal patterns on both sides point toward an open contest in which each team has a credible route to the scoresheet.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.