SSC Napoli — Frosinone Calcio: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.7% |
| 12 | 79.0% | |
| X2 | 37.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.7% / 34.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.3% / 10.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.7% / 29.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.6% / 50.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.4% / 69.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.3% / 83.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
SSC Napoli
9th place · 7 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Fiorentina 1:1
- 13.09.2026 home Bologna 1:0
- 05.09.2026 away Inter 2:3
- 30.08.2026 home Como 1:2
- 22.08.2026 away Genoa 2:0
Frosinone Calcio
6th place · 10 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Como 2:0
- 12.09.2026 away Genoa 1:1
- 06.09.2026 home Venezia 3:2
- 29.08.2026 away Fiorentina 3:0
- 23.08.2026 home Juventus 0:1
This season: SSC Napoli at home vs Frosinone Calcio away
| Metric | SSC Napoli · at home | Frosinone Calcio · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.27 | 1.51 |
| xG against per match | 0.67 | 1.89 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.50 | 6.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 14.04.2024 SSC Napoli 2:2 Frosinone Calcio
- 19.08.2023 Frosinone Calcio 1:3 SSC Napoli
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SSC Napoli host Frosinone Calcio in Serie A with the form table telling a slightly surprising story. The visitors arrive in better recent shape, sitting 6th with 10 points from 5 matches and taking 3 wins from their last 5 games, scoring 9 and conceding only 4. Frosinone Calcio have also travelled well, going unbeaten in 2 away fixtures this season with 4 goals scored and just 1 conceded. SSC Napoli, by contrast, sit 9th on 7 points, with a mixed D W L L W run and a modest home return of 1 win and 1 defeat from 2 matches.
Despite the away side's recent numbers, the underlying picture at the Diego Armando Maradona favours the hosts, who create clearly more chances than they allow at home. The head-to-head record also tilts their way: 1 win and 1 draw from the last 2 meetings, with the most recent encounter ending SSC Napoli 2-2 Frosinone Calcio in 2024, and both teams scoring in each of those matches.
Taken together, the hosts look the stronger side with moderate confidence, in a fixture that leans towards goals at both ends rather than a cautious, low-scoring evening.
What matters before kick-off
SSC Napoli squad availability update
SSC Napoli head coach Massimiliano Allegri confirmed that Scott McTominay and Luca Marianucci returned to the squad ahead of the match against Frosinone Calcio. Meanwhile, Costantino Favasuli and Antonio Vergara miss out due to injuries.
League standings and team form ahead of Matchday 6
Heading into their Matchday 6 clash, Frosinone Calcio sit sixth in the Serie A standings with 10 points from 5 matches, ahead of SSC Napoli on 7 points. Frosinone also enter the match on a 17-game unbeaten away run across all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.