Genoa CFC — ACF Fiorentina: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026

Genoa CFC arrive at this Serie A fixture in a difficult spell, sitting 19th of 20 teams with a single point from five matches and a recent run of four defeats and one draw. At home this season they have taken one point from three outings, with two goals scored and seven conceded. ACF Fiorentina are only two places and three points above them in 17th, and their own last five read one win, one draw and three losses, so neither side arrives in form.

The head-to-head record is the clearest line in the picture. Across the last six meetings, Genoa CFC have not beaten ACF Fiorentina once, with three draws and three wins for the visitors, and the previous encounter ended goalless. Away from home, Fiorentina have at least shown they can score, posting four goals in two trips, though they have shipped six in return.

Taken together, the standings, the home side's heavy defensive leak at the Marassi and the one-sided head-to-head point to a slight edge for the visitors, without suggesting anything emphatic. With chance quality roughly level for both teams in their respective venues, a tight, medium-scoring contest looks the most plausible shape, and the double chance leaning toward ACF Fiorentina reads as the measured interpretation.