Sassuolo Calcio — AC Milan: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 48.7% |
| 12 | 74.4% | |
| X2 | 76.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.9% / 38.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.6% / 16.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.6% / 39.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.2% / 61.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.7% / 79.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.8% / 90.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Sassuolo Calcio
10th place · 7 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 away Monza 1:2
- 13.09.2026 home Juventus 3:2
- 06.09.2026 away Bologna 2:2
- 29.08.2026 home Torino 2:1
- 23.08.2026 away Atalanta 1:2
AC Milan
5th place · 11 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Lecce 3:0
- 12.09.2026 away Lazio 2:2
- 06.09.2026 away Juventus 1:1
- 28.08.2026 home Venezia 2:0
- 23.08.2026 away Torino 2:1
This season: Sassuolo Calcio at home vs AC Milan away
| Metric | Sassuolo Calcio · at home | AC Milan · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 1–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.44 | 1.17 |
| xG against per match | 1.18 | 1.63 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.50 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.50 | 3.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 03.05.2026 Sassuolo Calcio 2:0 AC Milan
- 14.12.2025 AC Milan 2:2 Sassuolo Calcio
- 14.04.2024 Sassuolo Calcio 3:3 AC Milan
- 30.12.2023 AC Milan 1:0 Sassuolo Calcio
- 29.01.2023 AC Milan 2:5 Sassuolo Calcio
- 30.08.2022 Sassuolo Calcio 0:0 AC Milan
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sassuolo Calcio and AC Milan meet in Serie A with a slight edge toward the visitors. The available assessment gives this view a high level of confidence, while the market signal also points toward an outcome that favors AC Milan avoiding defeat. That suggests the visitors enter the matchup with the stronger overall outlook, although the edge is not presented as overwhelming.
The scoring profile points to a medium-scoring contest. Both teams scoring is described as essentially balanced, so there is no clear indication that either side will definitely find the net. The most likely scorelines listed are 1:1, 1:2, and 0:2, which reflects a match that could remain competitive while still offering AC Milan a route to victory. Overall, the analytical picture favors AC Milan, but Sassuolo Calcio remain capable of keeping the game close.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.