Cagliari Calcio — Juventus Turin: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 36.4% |
| 12 | 76.3% | |
| X2 | 87.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.5% / 53.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.9% / 24.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.0% / 72.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.3% / 86.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Cagliari Calcio
4th place · 12 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Udinese 1:0
- 12.09.2026 away Atalanta 2:1
- 07.09.2026 home Lecce 1:0
- 30.08.2026 home Inter 0:1
- 22.08.2026 away Parma 1:0
Juventus Turin
7th place · 10 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Atalanta 2:0
- 13.09.2026 away Sassuolo 2:3
- 06.09.2026 home Milan 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home Parma 2:0
- 23.08.2026 away Frosinone 1:0
This season: Cagliari Calcio at home vs Juventus Turin away
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio · at home | Juventus Turin · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 0.91 | 1.64 |
| xG against per match | 2.16 | 0.72 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Corners per match | 7.50 | 11.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.01.2026 Cagliari Calcio 1:0 Juventus Turin
- 29.11.2025 Juventus Turin 2:1 Cagliari Calcio
- 23.02.2025 Cagliari Calcio 0:1 Juventus Turin
- 06.10.2024 Juventus Turin 1:1 Cagliari Calcio
- 19.04.2024 Cagliari Calcio 2:2 Juventus Turin
- 11.11.2023 Juventus Turin 2:1 Cagliari Calcio
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Juventus Turin in a Serie A fixture on October 11, with the visitors entering the matchup as the clearly stronger side. The assessment gives Juventus Turin a moderate but meaningful advantage, suggesting that they have the better overall outlook for this encounter. However, the difference in confidence is not sufficient to dismiss the possibility of a competitive contest, particularly if Cagliari Calcio can make effective use of their home advantage.
The expected scoring pattern points towards a medium-scoring match, with a controlled approach potentially shaping the balance between attacking ambition and defensive responsibility. Both teams scoring remains difficult to call, so the possibility of Cagliari Calcio finding the net alongside Juventus Turin should be treated with caution rather than assumed. A narrow away victory is one plausible scenario, while a draw also remains within the range of reasonable outcomes. Juventus Turin appear better positioned to take the initiative, but their advantage should be viewed as a measured assessment rather than a prediction of a certain result.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.