Atalanta BC — Venezia FC: Win probabilities, 12.10.2026
Full time
✓ Prediction hit
Final result
Atalanta BC3
:
1Venezia FC
Locked signal W1
Probability 63.2%
Verdict Hit
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
63.2%
Home win
Atalanta BC
X
20.7%
Draw
W2
16.0%
Away win
Venezia FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X85.1%
Both teams to score
Yes59.8%
Totals 2.5
Over65.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.1% |
| 12 | 79.8% | |
| X2 | 35.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.8% / 40.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.0% / 14.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.8% / 34.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.9% / 56.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.4% / 74.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.8% / 87.2% |
Goal distribution model
Atalanta BC × Venezia FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.2%
0:1
2.7%
0:2
1.9%
0:3
0.7%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
7.0%
1:1
9.2%
1:2
4.4%
1:3
1.5%
1:4
0.4%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.2%
2:1
9.7%
2:2
5.1%
2:3
1.8%
2:4
0.5%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
7.1%
3:1
7.5%
3:2
4.0%
3:3
1.4%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
4.2%
4:1
4.4%
4:2
2.3%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.9%
5:1
2.0%
5:2
1.1%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:19.7%
1:19.2%
2:09.2%
3:17.5%
3:07.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.10.2026
Atalanta BC
11th place · 6 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Juventus 0:2
- 12.09.2026 home Cagliari 1:2
- 05.09.2026 away Roma 1:2
- 31.08.2026 home Bologna 1:0
- 23.08.2026 home Sassuolo 2:1
Venezia FC
20th place · 0 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Lazio 0:2
- 11.09.2026 home Fiorentina 2:4
- 06.09.2026 away Frosinone 2:3
- 28.08.2026 away Milan 0:2
- 23.08.2026 home Lecce 0:2
This season: Atalanta BC at home vs Venezia FC away
| Metric | Atalanta BC · at home | Venezia FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–1 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| xG for per match | 0.79 | 1.49 |
| xG against per match | 1.79 | 2.06 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 2.67 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
Atalanta BC wins3
Draws1
Venezia FC wins0
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored1/4
Over 2.5 goals2/4
- 01.03.2025 Atalanta BC 0:0 Venezia FC
- 20.10.2024 Venezia FC 0:2 Atalanta BC
- 23.04.2022 Venezia FC 1:3 Atalanta BC
- 30.11.2021 Atalanta BC 4:0 Venezia FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 4.33 → now 4.50 |
| W2 | was 6.25 → now 6.00 |
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