US Lecce — AS Roma: Win probabilities, 31.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 32.5% |
| 12 | 79.1% | |
| X2 | 88.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.9% / 56.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.5% / 24.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.5% / 71.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.7% / 94.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.08.2026
US Lecce
9th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Venezia 2:0
- 24.05.2026 home Genoa 1:0
- 17.05.2026 away Sassuolo 3:2
- 09.05.2026 home Juventus 0:1
- 01.05.2026 away Pisa 2:1
AS Roma
7th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.08.2026 home Fiorentina 4:0
- 24.05.2026 away Verona 2:0
- 17.05.2026 home Lazio 2:0
- 10.05.2026 away Parma 3:2
- 04.05.2026 home Fiorentina 4:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.03.2026 AS Roma 1:0 US Lecce
- 06.01.2026 US Lecce 0:2 AS Roma
- 29.03.2025 US Lecce 0:1 AS Roma
- 07.12.2024 AS Roma 4:1 US Lecce
- 01.04.2024 US Lecce 0:0 AS Roma
- 05.11.2023 AS Roma 2:1 US Lecce
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
US Lecce face AS Roma in Serie A, with the visitors carrying the clearer overall strength according to the available assessment. The confidence in that reading is moderate rather than decisive, so the match should be approached as one where AS Roma have the better platform but still need to impose it effectively. The projected scoring environment is medium-scoring, pointing to a contest with room for chances without suggesting an open, end-to-end game.
The goal outlook is balanced on one specific question: both teams scoring is considered too close to call. That leaves several plausible paths, from AS Roma controlling the match and winning without conceding to a more competitive game in which US Lecce find a response. Overall, the analytical lean is toward AS Roma, while the uncertainty around the home side’s attacking contribution makes a narrow away win and a draw among the more credible alternatives.
What matters before kick-off
Lecce opening round result
Lecce opened their new Serie A campaign with a 2-0 away victory over Venezia, secured by goals from Olaf Gorter and Tiago Gabriel.
Roma opening match result
AS Roma swept Fiorentina aside 4-0 in their Serie A opening fixture, highlighted by a Donyell Malen hat-trick.
Head-to-head record
AS Roma have won 8 of their last 10 head-to-head encounters against Lecce.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.