US Lecce — AS Roma: Win probabilities, 31.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 32.5% |
| 12 | 79.1% | |
| X2 | 88.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.9% / 56.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.5% / 24.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.5% / 71.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.7% / 94.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
US Lecce face AS Roma in Serie A, with the visitors carrying the clearer overall strength according to the available assessment. The confidence in that reading is moderate rather than decisive, so the match should be approached as one where AS Roma have the better platform but still need to impose it effectively. The projected scoring environment is medium-scoring, pointing to a contest with room for chances without suggesting an open, end-to-end game.
The goal outlook is balanced on one specific question: both teams scoring is considered too close to call. That leaves several plausible paths, from AS Roma controlling the match and winning without conceding to a more competitive game in which US Lecce find a response. Overall, the analytical lean is toward AS Roma, while the uncertainty around the home side’s attacking contribution makes a narrow away win and a draw among the more credible alternatives.
What matters before kick-off
Lecce opening round result
Lecce opened their new Serie A campaign with a 2-0 away victory over Venezia, secured by goals from Olaf Gorter and Tiago Gabriel.
Roma opening match result
AS Roma swept Fiorentina aside 4-0 in their Serie A opening fixture, highlighted by a Donyell Malen hat-trick.
Head-to-head record
AS Roma have won 8 of their last 10 head-to-head encounters against Lecce.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.