Cagliari Calcio — Inter Milano: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 30.3% |
| 12 | 81.2% | |
| X2 | 88.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.4% / 51.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.1% / 19.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.3% / 42.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.9% / 65.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.2% / 81.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Cagliari Calcio face Inter Milano in a Serie A meeting where the visitors appear clearly stronger, although the confidence level is moderate rather than decisive. The overall outlook points towards an away win, with Inter Milano better positioned to control the match and create the more consistent attacking threat. Cagliari Calcio will need to stay compact and make the most of their opportunities if they are to disrupt that balance.
The expected profile is medium-scoring rather than an open goal fest. The leading scoreline possibilities all favour Inter Milano, while the question of whether both teams will score remains finely balanced. That suggests a match in which the visitors could prevail without the game necessarily becoming one-sided throughout. Cagliari Calcio still have a route into the contest, particularly if they can resist early pressure, but Inter Milano hold the clearer advantage across the available signals.
What matters before kick-off
Winning Start for Both Sides
Both Cagliari and Inter Milan opened their 2026–27 Serie A season with victories, with Cagliari winning 1–0 away against Parma and Inter defeating Monza 4–1 at home.
Inter Squad Updates
Inter midfielder Henrikh Mkhitaryan has completed a suspension and is available to face Cagliari, while forward Marcus Thuram has returned to full training.
Inter Dominance in Head-to-Head Meetings
Inter Milan have won nine of their last ten Serie A matches against Cagliari, scoring 26 goals during that run.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.