Match intelligence

Cagliari Calcio — Inter Milano: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026

League: Serie A (Italy) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Cagliari Calcio0
:
1Inter Milano
Locked signal W2 Probability 70.7% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 10.6% Home win Cagliari Calcio
X 18.7% Draw
W2 70.7% Away win Inter Milano
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
X288.5%
Both teams to score
No51.6%
Totals 2.5
Over57.3%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X30.3%
1281.2%
X288.5%
Both teams to scoreYes/No48.4% / 51.6%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 94.7% / 5.3%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 80.1% / 19.9%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 57.3% / 42.7%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 34.9% / 65.1%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 18.2% / 81.8%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 8.2% / 91.8%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Cagliari Calcio × Inter Milano
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 5.3%
0:1 10.9%
0:2 12.3%
0:3 9.1%
0:4 5.0%
0:5 2.2%
1
1:0 3.7%
1:1 8.9%
1:2 9.6%
1:3 7.0%
1:4 3.9%
1:5 1.7%
2
2:0 1.5%
2:1 3.4%
2:2 3.7%
2:3 2.7%
2:4 1.5%
2:5 0.7%
3
3:0 0.4%
3:1 0.9%
3:2 1.0%
3:3 0.7%
3:4 0.4%
3:5 0.2%
4
4:0 0.1%
4:1 0.2%
4:2 0.2%
4:3 0.1%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 0.0%
5:1 0.0%
5:2 0.0%
5:3 0.0%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
0:212.3%
0:110.9%
1:29.6%
0:39.1%
1:18.9%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026

Cagliari Calcio

10th place · 3 pts after 1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 22.08.2026 away Parma 1:0
  • 24.05.2026 away Milan 2:1
  • 17.05.2026 home Torino 2:1
  • 09.05.2026 home Udinese 0:2
  • 03.05.2026 away Bologna 0:0

Inter Milano

5th place · 3 pts after 1

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 22.08.2026 home Monza 4:1
  • 23.05.2026 away Bologna 3:3
  • 17.05.2026 home Verona 1:1
  • 09.05.2026 away Lazio 3:0
  • 03.05.2026 home Parma 2:0

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Cagliari Calcio wins0
Draws1
Inter Milano wins5
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
  • 17.04.2026 Inter Milano 3:0 Cagliari Calcio
  • 27.09.2025 Cagliari Calcio 0:2 Inter Milano
  • 12.04.2025 Inter Milano 3:1 Cagliari Calcio
  • 28.12.2024 Cagliari Calcio 0:3 Inter Milano
  • 14.04.2024 Inter Milano 2:2 Cagliari Calcio
  • 28.08.2023 Cagliari Calcio 0:2 Inter Milano

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Cagliari Calcio face Inter Milano in a Serie A meeting where the visitors appear clearly stronger, although the confidence level is moderate rather than decisive. The overall outlook points towards an away win, with Inter Milano better positioned to control the match and create the more consistent attacking threat. Cagliari Calcio will need to stay compact and make the most of their opportunities if they are to disrupt that balance.

The expected profile is medium-scoring rather than an open goal fest. The leading scoreline possibilities all favour Inter Milano, while the question of whether both teams will score remains finely balanced. That suggests a match in which the visitors could prevail without the game necessarily becoming one-sided throughout. Cagliari Calcio still have a route into the contest, particularly if they can resist early pressure, but Inter Milano hold the clearer advantage across the available signals.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Winning Start for Both Sides

Both Cagliari and Inter Milan opened their 2026–27 Serie A season with victories, with Cagliari winning 1–0 away against Parma and Inter defeating Monza 4–1 at home.

Availability

Inter Squad Updates

Inter midfielder Henrikh Mkhitaryan has completed a suspension and is available to face Cagliari, while forward Marcus Thuram has returned to full training.

Match fact

Inter Dominance in Head-to-Head Meetings

Inter Milan have won nine of their last ten Serie A matches against Cagliari, scoring 26 goals during that run.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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