Atalanta BC — Bologna FC: Win probabilities, 31.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.3% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 48.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.2% / 44.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.0% / 22.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.1% / 68.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Atalanta BC enter this Serie A meeting with a slight but high-confidence edge over Bologna FC. The overall assessment points towards a competitive contest rather than a one-sided match, with the hosts better positioned to control the outcome. The market signal also favours Atalanta BC avoiding defeat, although Bologna FC remain close enough to keep the result open.
A medium-scoring game is expected, with neither side clearly favoured in the question of whether both teams will score. That uncertainty suggests the match could develop in different ways: Atalanta BC may win through a narrow margin, while Bologna FC have enough support in the assessment to make a draw a realistic alternative. The main expectation is therefore a controlled contest in which the hosts hold the stronger position, but without a decisive gap between the teams.
What matters before kick-off
Bologna Squad News
Bologna head coach Domenico Tedesco confirmed that winger Jonathan Rowe has been left out of the matchday squad for the fixture against Atalanta.
Atalanta Squad List
Atalanta head coach Maurizio Sarri named a 22-man squad for the Serie A Matchday 2 fixture against Bologna.
Historical Date Coincidence
Atalanta and Bologna face each other in Bergamo on August 31, 2026, exactly 29 years after meeting in Bergamo on the same calendar date in 1997.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.