Atalanta BC — Bologna FC: Win probabilities, 31.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.3% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 48.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.2% / 44.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.0% / 22.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.1% / 68.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.08.2026
Atalanta BC
11th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Sassuolo 2:1
- 22.05.2026 away Fiorentina 1:1
- 17.05.2026 home Bologna 0:1
- 10.05.2026 away Milan 3:2
- 02.05.2026 home Genoa 0:0
Bologna FC
14th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.08.2026 home Lazio 0:1
- 23.05.2026 home Inter 3:3
- 17.05.2026 away Atalanta 1:0
- 11.05.2026 away Napoli 3:2
- 03.05.2026 home Cagliari 0:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.05.2026 Atalanta BC 0:1 Bologna FC
- 07.01.2026 Bologna FC 0:2 Atalanta BC
- 13.04.2025 Atalanta BC 2:0 Bologna FC
- 28.09.2024 Bologna FC 1:1 Atalanta BC
- 03.03.2024 Atalanta BC 1:2 Bologna FC
- 23.12.2023 Bologna FC 1:0 Atalanta BC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Atalanta BC enter this Serie A meeting with a slight but high-confidence edge over Bologna FC. The overall assessment points towards a competitive contest rather than a one-sided match, with the hosts better positioned to control the outcome. The market signal also favours Atalanta BC avoiding defeat, although Bologna FC remain close enough to keep the result open.
A medium-scoring game is expected, with neither side clearly favoured in the question of whether both teams will score. That uncertainty suggests the match could develop in different ways: Atalanta BC may win through a narrow margin, while Bologna FC have enough support in the assessment to make a draw a realistic alternative. The main expectation is therefore a controlled contest in which the hosts hold the stronger position, but without a decisive gap between the teams.
What matters before kick-off
Bologna Squad News
Bologna head coach Domenico Tedesco confirmed that winger Jonathan Rowe has been left out of the matchday squad for the fixture against Atalanta.
Atalanta Squad List
Atalanta head coach Maurizio Sarri named a 22-man squad for the Serie A Matchday 2 fixture against Bologna.
Historical Date Coincidence
Atalanta and Bologna face each other in Bergamo on August 31, 2026, exactly 29 years after meeting in Bergamo on the same calendar date in 1997.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.