ACF Fiorentina — Frosinone Calcio: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.8% |
| 12 | 77.5% | |
| X2 | 41.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.5% / 43.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.9% / 19.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.2% / 41.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.8% / 64.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.6% / 91.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
ACF Fiorentina meet Frosinone Calcio in Serie A on 29 August 2026, with the available assessment giving the hosts a slight edge. The confidence behind that view is low, so the matchup should be approached as a relatively open contest rather than one with a clearly defined winner. The scoring outlook is medium, suggesting a game with room for several attacking phases without necessarily becoming one-sided.
Both teams scoring is described as a coin flip, which leaves the defensive reliability of each side difficult to assess from the available data. The main scoreline scenarios are 1:1, 2:1 and 2:0, reflecting a balance between a competitive draw and a narrow home victory. Overall, ACF Fiorentina have the more favorable position, but Frosinone Calcio remain capable of keeping the match close, particularly if they handle the hosts' attacking pressure effectively.
What matters before kick-off
Fiorentina's season opening defeat
ACF Fiorentina opened their 2026–27 Serie A campaign with a 4–0 away defeat against AS Roma on August 24, 2026.
Frosinone's opening match result
Frosinone Calcio returned to Serie A and opened their league campaign with a 1–0 home loss to Juventus on August 23, 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.