ACF Fiorentina — Frosinone Calcio: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.8% |
| 12 | 77.5% | |
| X2 | 41.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.5% / 43.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.9% / 19.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.2% / 41.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.8% / 64.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.6% / 91.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
ACF Fiorentina
20th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.08.2026 away Roma 0:4
- 22.05.2026 home Atalanta 1:1
- 17.05.2026 away Juventus 2:0
- 10.05.2026 home Genoa 0:0
- 04.05.2026 away Roma 0:4
Frosinone Calcio
15th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Juventus 0:1
- 08.05.2026 home Mantova 5:0
- 01.05.2026 away Juve Stabia 1:0
- 25.04.2026 home Carrarese 3:0
- 18.04.2026 away Modena 2:1
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 11.02.2024 ACF Fiorentina 5:1 Frosinone Calcio
- 28.09.2023 Frosinone Calcio 1:1 ACF Fiorentina
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
ACF Fiorentina meet Frosinone Calcio in Serie A on 29 August 2026, with the available assessment giving the hosts a slight edge. The confidence behind that view is low, so the matchup should be approached as a relatively open contest rather than one with a clearly defined winner. The scoring outlook is medium, suggesting a game with room for several attacking phases without necessarily becoming one-sided.
Both teams scoring is described as a coin flip, which leaves the defensive reliability of each side difficult to assess from the available data. The main scoreline scenarios are 1:1, 2:1 and 2:0, reflecting a balance between a competitive draw and a narrow home victory. Overall, ACF Fiorentina have the more favorable position, but Frosinone Calcio remain capable of keeping the match close, particularly if they handle the hosts' attacking pressure effectively.
What matters before kick-off
Fiorentina's season opening defeat
ACF Fiorentina opened their 2026–27 Serie A campaign with a 4–0 away defeat against AS Roma on August 24, 2026.
Frosinone's opening match result
Frosinone Calcio returned to Serie A and opened their league campaign with a 1–0 home loss to Juventus on August 23, 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.